Chicago Storm

Hit 91 at ORD, MDW and here today. Hot and humid...Perfect 4th of July. .

92 at ORD and MDW today. 94 here, as we escaped the OFB's for a while longer. 7th consecutive 90+ day here as well.

ORD had a small storm move overhead earlier, thus the cooler temps at that point. Looks like peak temp of 91 there so far.

ORD 89'd today, while MDW hit 91. 90 here, making it the 6th consecutive 90+ day.

Decent hit today here with the first MCS. Ended up with some smaller tree branches down in the area, estimated winds up to around 60mph. Have been without power since the storms hit...Not due to the winds, but instead lighting. A tree was struck across the way, and took down a power pole and lines, and it all caught on fire. .

It's not just the HRRR. All guidance has struggled badly, both yesterday and today.

What a day... Hit 90 for the first time this year here this afternoon. The lake breeze passed around 6PM, and combined with the fact that the developing storms were along I-88 and moving ESE, I didn’t think we’d see anything. One storm managed to push NE though, along outflow that was surging NE as well, from the main activity further south. The storm was high based, and had that good picturesque high based structure. A nice hail shaft was clearly visible too as it moved in. The storm ended up maxing out as it passed overhead. Ended up with a solid nearly 5-10 minute period of hail, with a few of the biggest stones up to 2.25”. Strong winds up to 55-60mph also accompanied the hail, making for a quality downburst. Trees were shredded with leaves flying everywhere, due to the hail/wind combo. The wind ended up bringing down a few small branches in the area as well. There was also widespread road flooding, mostly due to the combination heavy rains with the downburst and tree debris clogging storm drains. Following the storm was a double rainbow, some mammatus, and a quality backlit view of the storms departing at sunset. There is still hail up to nearly penny size on the ground at this time, nearly 3 hours post storm. Believe it or not, this was the first storm to produce severe criteria activity IMBY since 2011. .

Welcome to July...

This MCS that has regenerated this morning and early afternoon looks likely to push SE/SSE alight the instability gradient in place, which runs down along the IL/IN border area. It has featured embedded areas of rotation at times in the SW/S metro, with a few wall cloud reports. Overall severe reports have been surprising low though, given wind and hail sigs on radar. Re-development of quality surface based activity later this afternoon and evening in a very nice environment ahead of the cold front and near the OFB across Iowa, S. WI/N. IL looks questionable...With slightly rising heights, subsidence in the wake of the current S/W, no formidable wave close upstream and a cap in place.

Yea, they were behind the ball on that one. Actually looks standard slight risk worthy as of now.

You must live in Canada.

Just some observations for those looking for solid severe/chasing prospects or sustained warmth... We are currently transitioning from one bad pattern to another. The pattern we are leaving has been dominated by a +PNA/-EPO/stagnant COD MJO. The pattern we are now entering will be dominated by a -NAO/+PNA/stagnant COD MJO, which will likely last through mid-month, and potentially beyond in a varying degree. Essentially that means any sig severe/chasing prospects are slim to none for all but maybe the Dixie Ally or nearby. Additionally, we'll likely continue to see the roller-coaster temps wise continue as well. This -NAO/-PNA/-AO pattern might also help push out some April snow for some. Beyond mid-month things get a bit iffy obviously, but there looks to be more support for a continued not so great teleconnection pattern. The big thing that needs to change is getting the MJO moving and out of the COD, which is where it has been since March 13th.

See ya in May.

You should go post there...Would be a solid addition.

Things are likely DOA for the most part until at least mid-April. The stagnant MJO and sig -EPO are not helping at all.

The one thing holding you guys back is the lack of a slider bar to scroll through model runs, as COD has.

Looks like this season will come down to June. Given trends and what has happened thus far, one can't really be that excited, but we'll see...

Neither of those are really "day of" issues though.

Odds are there will be some sort of severe in the Plains towards the first days of May... Still a long way out obviously, but that should be the first potential...with more at or just after mid-month and beyond. LR GFS, but it shows it as well... .

See you in June.

Looks like weatherbell.

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0z GFS with the best looking potential of the season, with two quality Plains days next Wed/Thur. While it definitely looks like there will be severe in the Tue-Sat timeframe, potential multiple waves with non-stop convection and meridional flow issues are concerning at this range.

It's not good for anyone who missed the good days during that active week in late-May, as that's the only time this season really produced. Looks like the traditional chase season will end as it started. We'll see if there's any surprise events between now and the fall season.

Change that to Tuesday and Thursday-Sunday and I agree.