Chicago Storm

We now have two EF-5's... The Hackleburg, AL & Smithville, MS tor's.

KBMX from 1-9PM. KHTX, KGWX, KDGX and KFFC would be good sites to load too.

Will throw another one up at a later date...

Just catching up on the thread after having to step out several hours ago... Just an amazing event, that's all I can say.

BWER on the tor cell near De Kalb, MS...

0153 PM TORNADO OXFORD 34.36N 89.53W 04/27/2011 LAFAYETTE MS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WITH DAMAGE. EXTENT UNKNOWN. COUNTY ROADS 369 AND 469 SOUTH OF OXFORD.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN MS...AL...FAR NWRN GA AND SRN MIDDLE TN... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN MS AND AL...NWRN GA...MUCH OF TN AND KY...WRN CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER... ..SYNOPSIS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z WED...WITH A 100 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS N TX. THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH 00Z AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER W CNTRL AR AT 12Z...WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO ERN TX. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEARING SRN INDIANA BY 00Z AND A SHARP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO CNTRL KY...MIDDLE TN...ERN MS AND WRN AL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY WITH 68-72 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS LIKELY FROM THE GULF COAST INTO MS/AL...AND MID TO UPPER 60S F OVER TN AND SRN KY WHERE SUBSTANTIAL MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING. WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH/JET MAX...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A TORNADO OUTBREAK...WITH LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH RISK AREA. TO THE E...THE BROAD SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH A SECONDARY MOIST PLUME OFF THE ATLANTIC NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WRN VA BY AFTERNOON. --- AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NRN MS...NRN AL...TN AND KY. --- ..LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TN/OH VALLEYS A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD TODAY...BEGINNING RATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER SRN AND ERN AR AND NRN LA. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER AR BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN DEVELOPING IT NEWD ACROSS TN/KY BY 00Z. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING...AND SOME WILL BE SEVERE...FROM NRN LA/SRN AR EWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN AND MIDDLE TN AND KY. DESPITE TIME OF DAY...PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CAPPING AND SURFACE BASED EFFECTIVE PARCELS. THUS...A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOUTH OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F...THIS WILL CREATE STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER MS AND AL NWD TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE EARLY STORMS CAPPED...ALLOWING A BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED WHEN LARGE SCALE FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE FAST MOVING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS AND RELATIVELY WIDE WARM SECTOR...SOME TORNADOES COULD BE LONG LIVED. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THESE TYPES OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGH RISK AREA...OVER NRN MS AND AL...INTO EXTREME NWRN GA AND SRN MIDDLE TN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST TO THE E...BUT CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO MORE OF A QLCS STRUCTURE CAPABLE OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ..WRN NC/VA A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER WRN NC/VA. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MASS CAPPED. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AS WELL AS SELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES HAIL AND WIND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILIITES FOR THE DAYTIME CONVECTION. ..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 04/27/2011

Tuesday's thread... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17704-april-26th-severe-weather/

First look off of the SPC 4km WRF for tomorrow evening...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS/MID AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... ..SYNOPSIS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MO VALLEY LATE. AS THIS STRONG FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST...AS A DEEPENING LOW TRANSLATES NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW -- AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS -- WILL BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. ...NERN TX/SERN OK/SERN KS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS/TN/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED DAY 2 /MONDAY APRIL 25/ FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF OK/KS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS THE STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INVOF THE TX PANHANDLE REGION EARLY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS TX/OK DURING THE DAY...A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF N TX/OK IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS...SHIFTING NEWD INTO MO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW NWD SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL MO/SRN IL...WHILE A COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND SWEEPS EWD ACROSS ERN OK. WHILE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT HEATING -- AND THUS MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA...MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM E TX ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO AR/SRN MO AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND THE FRONT SHARPENS...EXPECT VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS SWRN MO...ERN OK...AND E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH -- GIVEN STRONG/FAVORABLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS E TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED -- A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG/DAMAGING. THESE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH TIME TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OVERNIGHT INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE AS STORMS SHIFT ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 04/24/2011

I hope Monday works out chase wise, especially since I didn't head out yesterday. We'll see how things progress, but I don't have much hope due to the cloud/precip issues you mention.