Chicago Storm

First look off of the SPC 4km WRF for tomorrow evening...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS/MID AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... ..SYNOPSIS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MO VALLEY LATE. AS THIS STRONG FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST...AS A DEEPENING LOW TRANSLATES NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW -- AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS -- WILL BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. ...NERN TX/SERN OK/SERN KS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS/TN/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED DAY 2 /MONDAY APRIL 25/ FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF OK/KS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS THE STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INVOF THE TX PANHANDLE REGION EARLY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS TX/OK DURING THE DAY...A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF N TX/OK IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS...SHIFTING NEWD INTO MO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW NWD SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL MO/SRN IL...WHILE A COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND SWEEPS EWD ACROSS ERN OK. WHILE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT HEATING -- AND THUS MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA...MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM E TX ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO AR/SRN MO AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND THE FRONT SHARPENS...EXPECT VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS SWRN MO...ERN OK...AND E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH -- GIVEN STRONG/FAVORABLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS E TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED -- A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG/DAMAGING. THESE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH TIME TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OVERNIGHT INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE AS STORMS SHIFT ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 04/24/2011

I hope Monday works out chase wise, especially since I didn't head out yesterday. We'll see how things progress, but I don't have much hope due to the cloud/precip issues you mention.