Chicago Storm

GFS caving, at least for now... Well south and weaker. .

Would be a siggy run, if extrapolated beyond 84hr.

I wouldn't go that route and discount it yet. The storm system that has been moving across the country early/mid this week featured the same issue... The GFS was more amped, and was not leaving behind any part of the wave...Which lead to it showing a decent snowstorm across MO/IA/WI/IL/IN/MI on several runs. On the other hand, the Euro latched on to the idea of leaving energy behind, and it took the GFS quite a while to catch up to that idea. In the end, the Euro was right. One cherry picked example, but a recent one.

You ask, you shall receive...

What happens with the EPO is really going to shape the upcoming pattern. Euro ENS still want to bring the EPO + for a while, flooding much for the country with mild air for the most part. GFS ENS keep the EPO -, with a more up/down pattern...with cold shots and snow potential.

South and weaker.

0.1" ORD and 0.2" here, from the period of snow this morning.

On the flip side to this... the Euro ENS and the +EPO it has is a perfect example of what can go wrong, potentially leading to a continued mild/snowless pattern.

Did it trigger wx radio?

ENS finally showing changes... Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region. Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas. .

Hopefully we'll be in a better place by then. Would be nice to have a solid white Christmas. '17, '16 and '13 were, but only featured 1-2"...the last solid one was '10 later.

tth, as alek would say. what has occurred speaks for itself. Fairly large area of 2-6 above normal. Fairly snow-less as well...ORD with only 0.1" and DTW with 0.2" since that time.

i didn't start discussing this pattern until 11/18, as shown below. so that would be pointless. Indian summer part was a bit overblown, but otherwise mild/wet/lacking snow has been spot on.

thanks for playing.

It has been mild, and will continue to be (minus the possible quick cold shot next week). zzz for the foreseeable future.

Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region. ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time.

7th snowiest and 4th wettest fall on record for Chicago... Snowiest falls on record (Sept-Nov) 1. 14.8" - 1940 2. 14.5" - 1895 3. 14.3" - 1951 4. 11.1" - 2015 5. 10.8" - 1975 6. 10.2" - 1989 7. 8.3" - 2019 8. 7.6" - 1953 9. 7.5" - 1893 10. 7.1" - 1978 Wettest falls on record (Sept-Nov) 1. 19.32" - 1961 2. 17.51" - 2008 3. 17.20" - 1881 4. 16.24" - 2019 5. 15.81" - 2001 6. 15.71" - 1941 7. 15.69" - 1983 8. 15.29" - 1988 9. 15.22" - 1970 10. 15.02" - 1985

0.1" of snow at ORD and 0.4" here last night.

0z HRRR peak wind gusts...

ENS would suggest that at least the first week of December will likely be a lost cause for the most part, if trends are correct. They do show some of the same heading into week 2...However, I wouldn't put too much stock into anything that far out. The MJO entering the COD in a cold phase recently will likely help keep us from all out torching for now. It should be noted though that guidance wants to push the MJO out of the COD, and into "warmer" phases 2 and 3 during the first week of December. If that happens and teleconnections are in the vicinity of whats currently shown, then maybe a torch-y period could be a real possibility. Also...Some bad news...The ECMWF weeklies are a torch from ~Dec. 20-Jan. 10th (end of run).

Highest report I've seen...Out of SE. Kansas recently. 0652 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S COFFEYVILLE AIRPORT 37.08N 95.57W 11/26/2019 M75 MPH MONTGOMERY KS ASOS ASOS STATION KCFV COFFEYVILLE.

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +. Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

I can match that...

50-65mph wind gusts look likely across the area both with the line of showers/'t'storms along the front tomorrow night, then again on the backside on Wednesday.