Chicago Storm

I'd be fairly surprised if the low doesn't fall below 80. As you mentioned, winds staying up a bit to keep things mixed and the warmer 925mb temps will help, but I think the much lower starting point will hurt a good bit.

86 as of 5PM. Pretty clear we'll fall short. There's likely a lower inversion in place across NE. IL in the wake of the MCS, and the main rapidly retreating OFB won't move through soon enough.

The list of 80/81 DP's is growing now...too many to post. JOT has the highest DP, with 88/82/107

Higher end DP's and HI's starting to pop up across IL/IA... ALN 91/81/111 PPQ 90/80/109 TVK 91/81/111 BNW 90/81/108 AXA 90/81/108

Went from 75 to 81 last hour.

Indeed. Clearing rapidly occurred between 12-1PM, with temps starting to rebound...Up around 80 now.

The MCS moving through this morning will definitely make for interesting temp watching today. An example of how fast things can rebound...After storms mid-afternoon yesterday, the temp jumped from 78 to 88 at ORD. .

All hi-res coming in has some sort of activity earlier in the day. The 3k NAM is the most extreme, and I’d guess overdone as well. So we’re probably either going to have late recovery and barely hit 90...Or somehow most activity stays north and/or exits very early with mid-upper 90’s. .

The biggest change from what was seen on guidance a few days ago is that there is no real ridge developing...instead we are seeing a more zonal flow.

That is definitely more likely given how things have gone. The DPA-MBY/06C-PWK area has been the warmer spot all season.

92 ORD, 91 MDW and 94 here today.

I give it a very high chance of getting 99'd, especially with it usually being the cooler spot in the metro now. I'm not as concerned as I once was for tomorrow, but still am for Saturday.

Gonna go with 92/97/99/92 Wed-Sat for ORD. .

Why not... .

It's looking increasingly possible that what once looked like a solid 6 day heat wave (Wed-Mon), could potentially end up just being one day (Fri) around here. Each day, outside of Friday, has some sort of fail potential. Tomorrow a lake breeze and associated showers and t'storms could prevent 90+. On Thursday, a weakening MCS is expected in the morning, and if it lingers could prevent 90+. Friday is a slam dunk 90+ day, and probably mid-upper 90's at that. Saturday has increasing potential to feature a frontal passage and t'storms at some point, which could also prevent 90+ potential. The much earlier frontal passage will also prevent 90+ on Sunday and Monday. The biggest change over the past several days is that guidance has really lost the decent ridge that was expected to develop and kick the jet stream north, and instead has a weaker ridge under a more zonal flow pattern. Guidance has also stepped back in the warmer UA temps being advected to the east as once advertised, which is not surprising given the first point.

92 at ORD, MDW and here today. .

94 at ORD and MDW yesterday, and 95 here. 91 at ORD, 90 MDW and 94 here today. MBY, and the western suburbs in general, have been consistently warmer that the immediate UHI the past month or so. Some days the lake has played a role, such as today, and other days not so much.

Yea, in 2012 ORD actually lead the pack many times. However, a few years ago the location of the OBS site was moved on the property. Additionally, they have finished some nearby construction, while starting other new nearby construction. Those changes are likely playing a role as well...

Per LOT.

The GFS and ECMWF are in a agreement on the potential for a string of around 90 to 90+ days starting tomorrow, through the following weekend. There are hints of some real heat late next week and the following weekend as well, with both models showing 100's as well.

There has been confirmation that the sensor is in good working order.

94 at ORD, 96 at MDW and 95 here today. Hottest temps of the year across the board.

91 at ORD and 92 at MDW today 91 here. The past week and a half will go down as a low end heat wave for portions of the area. ORD ended up with five 90+ days, and was 89'd three times. IMBY it hit 90+ all 10 days of the stretch...Being further away from the lake helped a few of the days. Day........ORD......MDW........Here 26th........89............90..............90 27th........89............90..............91 28th........90............91..............91 29th........87............87..............90 30th........91............89..............92 1st...........89............91..............90 2nd.........92............92..............94 3rd..........86............86..............90 4th..........91............91..............91 5th..........91............92..............91 ............................................................ 90+..........5..............7...............10

Hit 91 at ORD, MDW and here today. Hot and humid...Perfect 4th of July. .

92 at ORD and MDW today. 94 here, as we escaped the OFB's for a while longer. 7th consecutive 90+ day here as well.