Chicago Storm

I lied... 18z Euro was an even better phase.

R/S line was further south. SLP and precip swath were north, due to the better phase.

Euro is likely just about the best phase we can probably get out of this setup.

Stronger, wetter and more phased.

.

About 2 days away from the event, and now fairly good agreement between Euro/GFS/NAM/ICON...Which means this is the scenario that won't occur.

The trend on 6z guidance, and now continued on 12z guidance, is for the northern stream to be further west and dig more...which in turn allows for more phasing, and a better/further north storm system.

He let the success get to him, and now he’s on the downward spiral. .

The few times we've had a northern stream piece in play this season would suggest that is a believable issue.

That is my biggest concern as well, and is what most guidance shows, outside of the Euro...which is still not a perfect outcome. .

2.0” call. .

This period actually features the most favorable pattern for a good storm we’ve had pretty much all season. -EPO/-PNA in play, but the fact we will dealing with northern and southern stream could still mess things up. Would be unfortunate if the best pattern of the season only lead to a swath of 3-6” snowfall at maximum. .

I was gonna start this tomorrow. Threat is dead now. .

Around average could be fairly easy to attain, given we’ve already had a few light events and will probably rack up a few more...and average is Like sustained winter potential being DOA, cold is probably forgone too...outside of one or two very brief shots possible in the next 10 days or so, due the the brief -EPO push. Other than that, it’ll likely stay around or above normal temp wise. .

See ya next season...

lol

I've had 1"+ snow depth and temps in the 30's for 2 weeks now, in the heart of winter... pretty wintry to me.

You're hoping for something that is not realistic for where we live. Winter 2013/14 is not how with should be. That season was a severe anomaly in the grand scheme of things. And for you to say it was just "pretty good" is quite lol worthy. I can also tell you don't follow summer that closely given you think the only cool summer was 1992 in somewhat recent times. While yes, many summers have a majority of days from early June-early Sept that are 80+, this is just like most winters have a majority of days that are in the 30's or colder.

How is our climo bad? It is what it is for where we live. We have cold/snowy winters...and we have mild/snow-less winters. Mind you, we just had a top 5 coldest/snowiest winter just a few years ago. No different than in the warm season either... We have cool or severe t'storm-less summers...and we have hot and active severe t'storm summers.

Weeklies want to have a big cold push or two coming up in the first 1-2 weeks of Feb.

As I mentioned nearly 2 weeks ago, a pattern that featured more cold/snow chances than we seen all winter would be possible/likely to continue, which it has...and it looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The +EPO/+AO/+NAO regime has continued, though an overall toned down version compared to what it once was was. However, as was also mentioned in my last post, EPS was trending towards a bigger +EPO spike for a time, which has come to fruition. We are in that period now, which has been one thing that has aided in the mild/stagnant kind of temp pattern were are in right now, and may lead to the brief spike of even warmer temps this weekend/early next week. The continued good news is that EPS is in good agreement on having the +EPO relax once again after this current spike, favoring in the vicinity of neutral/or near neutral +/-. The +AO will likely continue, but there are signs the NAO will also favor the vicinity of neutral or so. After a trip into positive territory for a while, the PNA is also expected to return to neutral/low end negative, which should also help things a bit. Teleconnections will still not be amazing and only so-so, the PV will be of no help yet, and the MJO will still be unfavorable...The pattern for the foreseeable future still does not scream big turn around or sustained winter, but it will continue to be enough to bring continued cold shot potential and snow chance potential, though the lack of a -EPO will keep any cold in check. The bad news is that as was seen with the past three storm systems, it'll be a cluster****.

GFS and GEFS have been horrific with handling the EPO since November. I'd toss whatever they show in that regard. Edit: GEFS actually continue a +EPO, similar to the EPS. Toss the OP GFS and that well -EPO it shows.

Yep. .

Overly optimistic. Those D5 calls have gone to your head. .