Chicago Storm

-2 at ORD and -1 at MDW.

For the lolz. Totals are actually higher, but had to do 24hr total to lose current storm contamination.

And DST shortly thereafter.

Around average could be fairly easy to attain, given we’ve already had a few light events and will probably rack up a few more...and average is Like sustained winter potential being DOA, cold is probably forgone too...outside of one or two very brief shots possible in the next 10 days or so, due the the brief -EPO push. Other than that, it’ll likely stay around or above normal temp wise. .

See ya next season...

lol

I've had 1"+ snow depth and temps in the 30's for 2 weeks now, in the heart of winter... pretty wintry to me.

You're hoping for something that is not realistic for where we live. Winter 2013/14 is not how with should be. That season was a severe anomaly in the grand scheme of things. And for you to say it was just "pretty good" is quite lol worthy. I can also tell you don't follow summer that closely given you think the only cool summer was 1992 in somewhat recent times. While yes, many summers have a majority of days from early June-early Sept that are 80+, this is just like most winters have a majority of days that are in the 30's or colder.

How is our climo bad? It is what it is for where we live. We have cold/snowy winters...and we have mild/snow-less winters. Mind you, we just had a top 5 coldest/snowiest winter just a few years ago. No different than in the warm season either... We have cool or severe t'storm-less summers...and we have hot and active severe t'storm summers.

Weeklies want to have a big cold push or two coming up in the first 1-2 weeks of Feb.

As I mentioned nearly 2 weeks ago, a pattern that featured more cold/snow chances than we seen all winter would be possible/likely to continue, which it has...and it looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The +EPO/+AO/+NAO regime has continued, though an overall toned down version compared to what it once was was. However, as was also mentioned in my last post, EPS was trending towards a bigger +EPO spike for a time, which has come to fruition. We are in that period now, which has been one thing that has aided in the mild/stagnant kind of temp pattern were are in right now, and may lead to the brief spike of even warmer temps this weekend/early next week. The continued good news is that EPS is in good agreement on having the +EPO relax once again after this current spike, favoring in the vicinity of neutral/or near neutral +/-. The +AO will likely continue, but there are signs the NAO will also favor the vicinity of neutral or so. After a trip into positive territory for a while, the PNA is also expected to return to neutral/low end negative, which should also help things a bit. Teleconnections will still not be amazing and only so-so, the PV will be of no help yet, and the MJO will still be unfavorable...The pattern for the foreseeable future still does not scream big turn around or sustained winter, but it will continue to be enough to bring continued cold shot potential and snow chance potential, though the lack of a -EPO will keep any cold in check. The bad news is that as was seen with the past three storm systems, it'll be a cluster****.

GFS and GEFS have been horrific with handling the EPO since November. I'd toss whatever they show in that regard. Edit: GEFS actually continue a +EPO, similar to the EPS. Toss the OP GFS and that well -EPO it shows.

Yep. .

Overly optimistic. Those D5 calls have gone to your head. .

Comical...

Trendz...

As expected, mid-month has brought a pattern change, which started with our crap-tastic storm system last weekend. Increased chances for snow and cold are possible/likely for the foreseeable future, compared to what we have seen thus far this winter. However, I am not as gung-ho as others regarding a sustained winter period for the next several weeks. While the AO/NAO/EPO have been trending down, from being well positive to being in the vicinity of neutral to low end positive for the near future and extended, no serious dip into negative territory looks likely. (There has actually been a trend among ensembles to bring back a well positive EPO, but I'm not fully on-board with that for now.) Additionally, the deep -PNA that we've been in and needed to continue is expected to end, with it likely heading to around neutral to low end positive. Additionally, the MJO has been rolling through deep phases 4-5 and now 6. There is high agreement in rolling through phase 6-7, and then looping back into the COD, before exiting once again into warmer phases most likely. I do think there is some chance we do clip phase 8 for a short time, though. Add in that the main PV will be in an unfavorable area for the period, only smaller/brief lobes may quickly slide through nearby. Thinking we see continued/additional shots of cold/snow potential, definitely more-so than we've seen thus far this winter, which is fairly easy to attain. However, I definitely don't foresee any sustained/long period of cold/snows, with several mild periods/rainers still mixed in...just perhaps not AS mild as they have been.

It's called we were in a +AO/+NAO/+EPO pattern. So no, it is/was not shocking.

The north guidance is not surprising, with a lack of blocking and continued +AO/NAO. .

The trend recently in this pattern has been for bigger storms out in that range to come in weaker/strung out/not-phased. Case in point see the strung out/un-phased system moving across the region and East Coast the past few days, and then the upcoming strung out system around mid-week. Both were shown as sig winter storms just several days back. .

It hasn’t been shown consistently, and given the pattern we’re still in...it’s probably not even worth much discussion this far out. .

If that happens in this unfavorable pattern...take it and run, and don't stop running.

Well...I was previously going to mentioned how the Euro and GFS ENS had trended towards showing the potential for a much more favorable pattern coming up after the first week of January (7th)...A continued +AO, though with an NAO trending more neutral to -, along with a deepening -PNA and finally a legit -EPO. However, the Euro ENS have quickly trended back in the opposite direction, and are now back to what they were previously showing...with the same pattern that has been in place continuing... +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA...with a deepening -PNA. The GFS is kind of in the middle regarding things overall. There is also agreement between both the Euro and GFS ENS's on the MJO continuing to chug along, right on through the COD and into phases 4 and 5, which happen to be warmer phases of higher correlation at this time of year. I'd probably put more stock into what the Euro ENS are projecting, given their near stellar performance for a while now. If the Euro ENS are correct with teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO and upcoming movement of the main PV to settle in around Greenland in the future...more of the same pattern we've been in will continue (mild and snow-less overall), though more active overall. If the GFS ENS are correct, it will probably be a somewhat better pattern than we've been in, but still nothing to get too excited about. Probably a bit better cold/snow chances, however. tl;dr... zzzzz for now.

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