Chicago Storm

The changes are finally coming...

The "people" have been wrong so far. So I wouldn't put too much stock into what they say. However on the flip side, it does appear there is support for the potential of a more favorable pattern for cold/snow around or after the New Year. The GFS ENS are more gung-ho on this than the Euro ENS though.

Equal chances either way that far out. However, it is sort of interesting at the same time that there is not even a long range fantasy storm heading into January.

A lot of valid questions/possibilities.

You know it’s bad when the GFS doesn’t even have a fantasy snowstorm the entire run...which extends into the first days of January. Not just for our region, but the whole country pretty much. .

0.3" at ORD and 0.2" here last night.

12z GFS was a nice torch for Christmas, and the days prior.

So.....post more then? .

You mean the pre-Christmas warm up. .

It came north, with more of a slight SW-NE swath/track. It can only go so far north though, with the PV lobe swinging into the northern lakes from Canada. .

Huge changes again aloft. Now it’s trying to close off the main wave as it ejects out. That’s a new one...don’t think we’ve seen a model/run trying to do that, until now. .

NAM .

Very little by Saturday evening 0z's...Full by 12z Sunday.

Agree with this.

It's ova, outside of a DAB.

Other guidance is fairly similar. Without a more amped wave, or one that tries to close off, this is what we're going to have.

6z Euro is back south and weaker. .

DAB is actually my thought right now. .

If this one doesn’t work out, under 1” will be close to a lock. .

GFS caving, at least for now... Well south and weaker. .

Would be a siggy run, if extrapolated beyond 84hr.

I wouldn't go that route and discount it yet. The storm system that has been moving across the country early/mid this week featured the same issue... The GFS was more amped, and was not leaving behind any part of the wave...Which lead to it showing a decent snowstorm across MO/IA/WI/IL/IN/MI on several runs. On the other hand, the Euro latched on to the idea of leaving energy behind, and it took the GFS quite a while to catch up to that idea. In the end, the Euro was right. One cherry picked example, but a recent one.

You ask, you shall receive...

What happens with the EPO is really going to shape the upcoming pattern. Euro ENS still want to bring the EPO + for a while, flooding much for the country with mild air for the most part. GFS ENS keep the EPO -, with a more up/down pattern...with cold shots and snow potential.