Chicago Storm

Where that main initial push of heavier precip into the colder air sets, up will be the winner. That axis is now consistently being shown from STL up to N. IN. Likely game over up here, with 1-2”. .

D7 call still in play. .

Main trough has been onshore, and is fully sampled. The wave that dives in and phases with the trough is not sampled until tomorrow.

Indeed. The UK has been hitting the LE fairly hard on several runs. Edit: Sniped above.

You sure about that? .

0.3” of snow here with the weak wave, Fri night/Sat morning. .

Still not a single storm, as it occurs in 4 different waves. Single storm idea, which iirc was only shown by one GEM run, is probably out of contention. .

So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves. Cluster**** as expected. .

0.6" ORD and 0.5" here with the weak wave last night/this morning.

What model even is that?

lol

Trends continue... That Mon-Tue time-frame is looking less interesting with the first lead wave. Of more interest is the 2nd and/or 3rd wave Wed-Thur.

I've had 1"+ snow depth and temps in the 30's for 2 weeks now, in the heart of winter... pretty wintry to me.

You're hoping for something that is not realistic for where we live. Winter 2013/14 is not how with should be. That season was a severe anomaly in the grand scheme of things. And for you to say it was just "pretty good" is quite lol worthy. I can also tell you don't follow summer that closely given you think the only cool summer was 1992 in somewhat recent times. While yes, many summers have a majority of days from early June-early Sept that are 80+, this is just like most winters have a majority of days that are in the 30's or colder.

GFS took a step, and several GEFS are now GEM-like or close to it.

How is our climo bad? It is what it is for where we live. We have cold/snowy winters...and we have mild/snow-less winters. Mind you, we just had a top 5 coldest/snowiest winter just a few years ago. No different than in the warm season either... We have cool or severe t'storm-less summers...and we have hot and active severe t'storm summers.

Went higher than me.

GEM/UKMET in their own camp, showing a deeper and slower trough, with most of the energy staying behind for a later ejection of a better/main storm system. ECMWF is more in-between...slowly trending in that direction, but not nearly there yet. The GFS is the polar opposite of the GEM/UKMET, showing the faster/shallow trough...eventually getting sheared a part.

Lake effect mood dust. Weak/large meso low over the south end of the lake. .

The PNA going from + to - is more supportive of a SE ridge, not the other way around.

The pattern isn't really shifting to anything too different. We are basically reverting back to the pattern we had about 2 weeks ago.

First call 1.1"

Bound to fail now that you made one.