Chicago Storm

If that happens in this unfavorable pattern...take it and run, and don't stop running.

ORD finished with 1.5” of snow, yesterday/last night. .

Well...I was previously going to mentioned how the Euro and GFS ENS had trended towards showing the potential for a much more favorable pattern coming up after the first week of January (7th)...A continued +AO, though with an NAO trending more neutral to -, along with a deepening -PNA and finally a legit -EPO. However, the Euro ENS have quickly trended back in the opposite direction, and are now back to what they were previously showing...with the same pattern that has been in place continuing... +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA...with a deepening -PNA. The GFS is kind of in the middle regarding things overall. There is also agreement between both the Euro and GFS ENS's on the MJO continuing to chug along, right on through the COD and into phases 4 and 5, which happen to be warmer phases of higher correlation at this time of year. I'd probably put more stock into what the Euro ENS are projecting, given their near stellar performance for a while now. If the Euro ENS are correct with teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO and upcoming movement of the main PV to settle in around Greenland in the future...more of the same pattern we've been in will continue (mild and snow-less overall), though more active overall. If the GFS ENS are correct, it will probably be a somewhat better pattern than we've been in, but still nothing to get too excited about. Probably a bit better cold/snow chances, however. tl;dr... zzzzz for now.

The low of 47 at ORD yesterday broke the record high min temp for the date of 42 (1884).

Already had 0.1" here from the morning activity. But yea...A DAB will likely be it for tonight for most areas. Most recent guidance has been backing off from the earlier overdone 2-4" projections. DAB-1.5" looks good, with highest obviously near the IL/WI border. Should point out that the GFS is going to end up handling this better than any other guidance. All but two runs had a DAB to ~1.5" across N. Illinois.

+SN in some of this activity currently moving across NE. IL. .

0.94” was the total at ORD with the first round. 1. 2008 - 50.86" 2. 2011 - 49.83" 3. 1983 - 49.35" 4. 2018 - 49.23" 5. 2019 - 49.10” 2nd place will easily be attained with round 2, as only 0.74” is needed. Still an outside chance at 1st, with 1.77” needed. .

That becomes their problem then, not ours. .

I like this approach. .

I wouldn’t go there yet. .

Given how guidance has been trending, jumping from 5th to 2nd is a lock. Maybe a very outside chance of 1st still. .

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All of the so called “guru’s” have failed this far. Not saying he’s one per say, but will lump him in given he’s almost always talking cold for somewhere. .

My top 10 events for 2019... 1. June 25th severe t'storm. Produced 2.25" hail and 50-60mph downburst winds imby. 2. April 14th snowstorm. 7.5" of snow imby, and 5.4" at ORD. 3. Halloween snowstorm. 6.5" of snow imby, 4.6" at ORD. 4. April 27th snowstorm. 5.5" of snow imby, and 2.5" at ORD. 5. February 11-12th ice storm. 0.30-0.55" ice accrual across the area, with some tree damage/power outages. 6. Late January cold. High temps in -10's and low temps in -20, with -50 WC's. 7. Christmas record warm temps. 8. Veterans Day snow event. 4.0" of snow imby, and 3.4" at ORD. 9. Post Veterans Day record November cold. 10. April 27-May 3rd heavy rain event. Area totals of 4-9" of rain, with flooding.

61 ORD and 62 MDW today. As mentioned before, previous record for the date of 55 was easily surpassed.

Trees budding and flowers coming up around the area. Welcome to spring. .

60 at ORD as of noon. PWK torching at 62. .

Topped out at 61 MDW and 57 ORD today. Looks like low 60's a lock tomorrow, with the record of 55 likely being blown away.

Never though I'd experience a 6"+ snowstorm on Halloween, followed by 60F and shorts weather on Christmas...in the same year.

60 at MDW. ORD lagging at 56 though. Records broken across the state already at RFD, MLI, PIA, UIN, SPI and more. .

Temps might overachieve today, with less cirrus than expected. Already around 60 as far north as MLI and PNT. .

zzzzz... Edit: Should mention that since my last post last week, the GEFS caved to the EPS in showing fairly close to the same as below.

After that 1-2 run change, they reverted back. .

As you could probably figure out by the current/upcoming pattern, the Euro ENS were correct in handling/depicting a +EPO...while the GFS ENS failed horribly. The bad news...If ENS have a good handle on things, that upcoming potential pattern change guidance was hinting at to end December and begin January might be in jeopardy. The Euro and GFS ENS are showing a continued +EPO continue right on into early January. On top of that, the Euro ENS also have a +AO/+NAO/neutral PNA set in as well. The GFS ENS are a bit more subdue overall, more similar to what we are seeing now. Also of note, is that some of the GFS and Euro ENS have the MJO moving from the COD on into phase 6 for the late Dec/early Jan time-frame. If that were to happen, combined with the potential teleconnections in projected, and the fact the main PV will be up over the North Pole/Siberia...things *could* get even more torchy/snow-less...and that's saying something given how the past 5 weeks have been. Not saying that will happen... But the projected teleconnections alone should be a concern that an overall mild/snow-less pattern continues into at least early January.

Exactly what I was thinking. Definitely a positive step, but I could see how the northern zone will still be an issue at times.