Chicago Storm
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NAM and 3km with their snowiest runs yet around here. .
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It always does that. Not gonna see a drop of rain. .
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6z Euro is back south. Overnight trends have been naso good for around here. .
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It’s a step better than 12z. Ukie still isn’t as nice either, but is much better overall for the region than 12z. .
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0z NAM continuing the trend of a northern wave which dives in more. Looks like the southern wave ejecting out a bit strung out keeps this run from having a big dog. .
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Pretty much.
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I lied... 18z Euro was an even better phase.
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R/S line was further south. SLP and precip swath were north, due to the better phase.
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Euro is likely just about the best phase we can probably get out of this setup.
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Stronger, wetter and more phased.
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About 2 days away from the event, and now fairly good agreement between Euro/GFS/NAM/ICON...Which means this is the scenario that won't occur.
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The trend on 6z guidance, and now continued on 12z guidance, is for the northern stream to be further west and dig more...which in turn allows for more phasing, and a better/further north storm system.
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He let the success get to him, and now he’s on the downward spiral. .
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The few times we've had a northern stream piece in play this season would suggest that is a believable issue.
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Finished with 1.0” at ORD and 1.1” here. .
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That is my biggest concern as well, and is what most guidance shows, outside of the Euro...which is still not a perfect outcome. .
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2.0” call. .
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This period actually features the most favorable pattern for a good storm we’ve had pretty much all season. -EPO/-PNA in play, but the fact we will dealing with northern and southern stream could still mess things up. Would be unfortunate if the best pattern of the season only lead to a swath of 3-6” snowfall at maximum. .
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Have been getting solid periods of SN, probably borderline +SN at times. Solid DAB so far. .
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You were never really in the game. .
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It’s just organizing now, at about the time expected. Patience. .
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Yet another short term model guidance fail out west right now... All 0z guidance has 6-12" for the FSD metro on north. When in reality the band is stalling much further north, and the FSD area (and two counties north) will likely only end up with 1-3". HRRR is handling the situation much better.
