Chicago Storm

Trendz...

Not gonna be an all rainer.

Low of 2 at ORD this morning...coldest of the season. .

How is 3.1” short of the predicted 2-5” range? .

As expected, mid-month has brought a pattern change, which started with our crap-tastic storm system last weekend. Increased chances for snow and cold are possible/likely for the foreseeable future, compared to what we have seen thus far this winter. However, I am not as gung-ho as others regarding a sustained winter period for the next several weeks. While the AO/NAO/EPO have been trending down, from being well positive to being in the vicinity of neutral to low end positive for the near future and extended, no serious dip into negative territory looks likely. (There has actually been a trend among ensembles to bring back a well positive EPO, but I'm not fully on-board with that for now.) Additionally, the deep -PNA that we've been in and needed to continue is expected to end, with it likely heading to around neutral to low end positive. Additionally, the MJO has been rolling through deep phases 4-5 and now 6. There is high agreement in rolling through phase 6-7, and then looping back into the COD, before exiting once again into warmer phases most likely. I do think there is some chance we do clip phase 8 for a short time, though. Add in that the main PV will be in an unfavorable area for the period, only smaller/brief lobes may quickly slide through nearby. Thinking we see continued/additional shots of cold/snow potential, definitely more-so than we've seen thus far this winter, which is fairly easy to attain. However, I definitely don't foresee any sustained/long period of cold/snows, with several mild periods/rainers still mixed in...just perhaps not AS mild as they have been.

Finished with 3.7” of snow and 0.20” of ice here. .

Snow turned to a mix about 1.5-2 hours ago, then quickly to FZRA. Have had FZRA since then, with a solid glaze already. .

Precip filling in back across IA and MO as well.

0.20" ice report out of Macomb, with power outages.

Won't measure again until it's about to mix, but looks like fairly close to 3" now.

1.1" ORD as of 6PM.

tth. Your pic from earlier was already 1/2" at least.

1.1" here thus far. After a period of -SN, back to solid SN.

zzzzz

Line is still way down by the tri-state border area.

Solid SN here. 0.5" already.

p clear.

Flake-age started here a short time ago.

zzzzz

Much of Iowa has picked up 4-6", the exception being NE/E Iowa where snows started later. So things seem to be on track for 3-6" area wide around here. Lower totals farther south in the CWA though.

15z HRRR is very sig the the local area. Widespread 3-7” of snow, then widespread 0.25-0.60” ice. .

It’s time... .

Guidance is not backing downward. .

Enjoy the 2-5” before that. .

Guidance looks good, 2-5” hit area wide looking likely. .