Chicago Storm

How is our climo bad? It is what it is for where we live. We have cold/snowy winters...and we have mild/snow-less winters. Mind you, we just had a top 5 coldest/snowiest winter just a few years ago. No different than in the warm season either... We have cool or severe t'storm-less summers...and we have hot and active severe t'storm summers.

Went higher than me.

GEM/UKMET in their own camp, showing a deeper and slower trough, with most of the energy staying behind for a later ejection of a better/main storm system. ECMWF is more in-between...slowly trending in that direction, but not nearly there yet. The GFS is the polar opposite of the GEM/UKMET, showing the faster/shallow trough...eventually getting sheared a part.

Lake effect mood dust. Weak/large meso low over the south end of the lake. .

The PNA going from + to - is more supportive of a SE ridge, not the other way around.

The pattern isn't really shifting to anything too different. We are basically reverting back to the pattern we had about 2 weeks ago.

First call 1.1"

Bound to fail now that you made one.

Weeklies want to have a big cold push or two coming up in the first 1-2 weeks of Feb.

As I mentioned nearly 2 weeks ago, a pattern that featured more cold/snow chances than we seen all winter would be possible/likely to continue, which it has...and it looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The +EPO/+AO/+NAO regime has continued, though an overall toned down version compared to what it once was was. However, as was also mentioned in my last post, EPS was trending towards a bigger +EPO spike for a time, which has come to fruition. We are in that period now, which has been one thing that has aided in the mild/stagnant kind of temp pattern were are in right now, and may lead to the brief spike of even warmer temps this weekend/early next week. The continued good news is that EPS is in good agreement on having the +EPO relax once again after this current spike, favoring in the vicinity of neutral/or near neutral +/-. The +AO will likely continue, but there are signs the NAO will also favor the vicinity of neutral or so. After a trip into positive territory for a while, the PNA is also expected to return to neutral/low end negative, which should also help things a bit. Teleconnections will still not be amazing and only so-so, the PV will be of no help yet, and the MJO will still be unfavorable...The pattern for the foreseeable future still does not scream big turn around or sustained winter, but it will continue to be enough to bring continued cold shot potential and snow chance potential, though the lack of a -EPO will keep any cold in check. The bad news is that as was seen with the past three storm systems, it'll be a cluster****.

GFS and GEFS have been horrific with handling the EPO since November. I'd toss whatever they show in that regard. Edit: GEFS actually continue a +EPO, similar to the EPS. Toss the OP GFS and that well -EPO it shows.

Yep. .

Pivotal also does private sector work, in addition to the Patreon donations. Still though, don't see how they will be able to maintain being full free, unless they are getting a discount...which is highly unlikely.

Pivotal is easily the best free site now. COD was the go-to for the longest time, but they are quickly falling out of contention.

Overly optimistic. Those D5 calls have gone to your head. .

Good to see it working out.

That the pivot carving into SE. WI and NE. IL. How deep it pushes inland is the question.

There were already ~1.5" totals in McHenry Co as of 8:30-9:00PM.

play some xbox, few drinks, call it a night.

Quality +SN.

That could be a very good point. Wet bulb temps are also above 32 across a large area.

Finally got a chance to look at that, and ILX is very similar to DVN. Very odd indeed things have struggled to quickly change over to snow everywhere, especially as surface temps have dropped a few degrees with cooling taking place.

I'm down in Owesgo for the weekend, but down the road from you back home has been back and forth between rain/snow as well.

The current GFS is the new upgraded version. The GEFS run off of the old physics packages. This as we have seen, can be fairly different that the GFS, even in the near term. .

Nice bright band over the Chicago area, with CC rapidly filling in. .