Chicago Storm

First snow of the event finally started about an hour ago. Actually started as sleet, but since changed to snow. Solid dusting so far.

0z HRRR is about as good as it gets on this side of the lake, for lake effect snow duration/quality. Obviously a bit of synoptic snow in the totals below, but most of it is LES. Also, LES is still ongoing, with a re-newed push incoming at the end of the run.

Lake enhancement into the NE. Illinois already...Cook/DuPage/Will Co's.

Light precip is expected to fill in this evening and tonight. That initial push of precip was always going to provide to most organized/heavier snows.

It's actually not terrible. 1-3" area wide at end of most recent run, and still more synoptic and LES to go. Would probably end up 2-5" most of the area.

Drying trend overall on 6z guidance.

We've seen this the past few storm systems...For some reason it is very late in picking up realistic amounts. I'm guess that will be the case once again.

Continuing the trend, the RGEM bumped SE yet again. Drawing closer to finally chalking up an Alek bust high.

Where that main initial push of heavier precip into the colder air sets, up will be the winner. That axis is now consistently being shown from STL up to N. IN. Likely game over up here, with 1-2”. .

D7 call still in play. .

Main trough has been onshore, and is fully sampled. The wave that dives in and phases with the trough is not sampled until tomorrow.

Indeed. The UK has been hitting the LE fairly hard on several runs. Edit: Sniped above.

You sure about that? .

0.3” of snow here with the weak wave, Fri night/Sat morning. .

Still not a single storm, as it occurs in 4 different waves. Single storm idea, which iirc was only shown by one GEM run, is probably out of contention. .

So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves. Cluster**** as expected. .

0.6" ORD and 0.5" here with the weak wave last night/this morning.

What model even is that?

lol

Trends continue... That Mon-Tue time-frame is looking less interesting with the first lead wave. Of more interest is the 2nd and/or 3rd wave Wed-Thur.

I've had 1"+ snow depth and temps in the 30's for 2 weeks now, in the heart of winter... pretty wintry to me.

You're hoping for something that is not realistic for where we live. Winter 2013/14 is not how with should be. That season was a severe anomaly in the grand scheme of things. And for you to say it was just "pretty good" is quite lol worthy. I can also tell you don't follow summer that closely given you think the only cool summer was 1992 in somewhat recent times. While yes, many summers have a majority of days from early June-early Sept that are 80+, this is just like most winters have a majority of days that are in the 30's or colder.

GFS took a step, and several GEFS are now GEM-like or close to it.