Chicago Storm

Not the RAP, the RAP was also horrible. ECMWF and RGEM win on this one.

Several 2.00-3.00" hail reports W to S of RFD area.

Several 2-2.50" hail reports in and around CID.

Chicago metro likely to rolled the next few hours. That main sup near RFD continues to roll, with the storm behind it taking on sup characteristics now as well. Then there's also new rapid development in McHenry/Lake Co's.

The supercell off NW of Rockford is fairly sig. Large TBSS with it, and maxed out at 77dbz.

Hit 80 at ORD and MDW today.

Several 2-2.50" hail reports from that sup that moved north of MKE a bit ago.

Significant initiation attempts occurring in the mentioned area now, just NW of DBQ.

Think we eventually see initiation somewhere in the NE IA/SW WI/NW IL area. The front is more NE-SW oriented currently, instead of N-S....and will becoming more ENE-WSW oriented with time. That will likely lead to a positive in eroding the cap, with some "CAA" occurring aloft moving into the aforementioned area, which looks to overlap the front due to its previously mentioned orientation. Add in the main disturbance and jet streak will be nosing into that area shortly as well. Seems to be a nice spot to watch for starters. Already seeing a nice/healthy/agitated CU field across this area as well. Probably will have some initiation in other areas as well, but that is one area that sticks out for now.

Make that more 77-83 area wide now. .

No doubt... Wednesday too. Even today there were a significant amount of people out and about.

11,256 cases and 274 deaths as of yesterday. Slightly bigger increase to 12,262 cases and 307 deaths in IL today.

Yea, something is wrong with the placefile I'm using. Marginal is still there,a s you pointed out.

Can’t figure out at all what the SPC is doing. Not only the very questionable SWODY2, but not the new SWODY1 completely removes marginal for anywhere...when it’s pretty clear there will be a hail risk that warrants a marginal corridor. .

Enjoy. .

Looks like an elevated hailer threat this evening/tonight, and then a more interesting threat tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Looks like 75-80 area wide tomorrow.

NAM's have been overzealous with cloud cover, and in turn have underdone temps on almost every warm day thus far this season. So easy toss material there.

10,357 cases and 243 deaths as of today in IL. .

They're performing how they have since November.

ORD hit 70 today...first 70+ day on the year.

8,904 cases and 210 deaths total now in IL. .

Preparing for the next severe event?

7,695 cases and 157 deaths in IL now. Seem to be going back and forth between bigger and smaller jumps in case and death counts every other day.

I actually started working on some this evening with several states. If I don't post it tonight, I'll have it tomorrow.