Chicago Storm

No doubt. Have already been hearing it about why we were so low compared to every other outlet. Going 4-7" max in the main axis was a good call. Obvi big shift south is needed and coming though.

Counterpoint...Less snow to melt here and points SW ahead of the next warm up. .

This is great. .

Unless there are drastic changes, the Ukie definitely handled things the best overall. .

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NAM coming in weaker and SE again. .

Subtracting some for the usual Euro kutchera being too high...isn’t even a top event on the season. .

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6z Euro with another jump weaker and SE...so far. .

It does, but is also much different/better earlier on.

Not surprisingly the GFS is taking a step south, but still a quality run.

We needed a good thread. Been years since a high quality one.

This run of the NAM was first hurt, but then saved by big changes at 500mb. The northern wave ends up less phased with the southern wave, thus is slower and digs more. However, the 2nd northern wave diving into the Lakes later on ends up phasing with the original northern wave. This is why the run was meh early on, but then came in with a late save. .

Still coming in, but only 1-4” by Wed evening is not good. .

Na, SLP is weaker and east. More of a diffuse area of SLP. .

It’s not gonna be pretty. .

It has the 2nd best 500mb NH verification score, so yes. .

Ukie is the furthest south.

18z Euro...

18z Euro coming in SE and weaker yet again.

6:1 to 10:1 will be the likely range, do to the marginal SFC temps.

RGEM still getting into range, but will also be well south/weak.

That's not fully how it works anymore. NWS heavily uses NBM now, which Ricky could go into more.

They have been fairly bad much of this season.

lol WPC disco... 19z update: The UKMET remains too far south and the CMC elongated more positively in the orientation of the trof Wednesday to delay it even further with very little/no interaction out of the Arctic stream to continue rejecting the UKMET/CMC from any preference at this time. The 12z GFS remains steadfast to continue to heavily favor it in the blend. The 12z ECMWF continues to be generally weaker with the inner core of the developing upper low/hub coming out of the MO Valley, keeping it south and east compared to the GFS/NAM and even compared to the GEFS/ECMWF. Interestingly, the Arctic shortwave continues to trend sharper/further south in all guidance. So will not break from initial preference, of the 12z GEFS/GFS/NAM/ECMWF and 00z ECENS through 26.00z and remove 12z GFS afterward weighting heavy to GEFS.