Chicago Storm

Cross-posting from the Chicago record thread... A few stats to watch for Chicago, for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Top 10, if not top 5, a lock for pretty much each list. Warmest Christmas Eve Max Temps 1. 64 - 1889 2. 62 - 1982 3. 59 - 1877 4. 58 - 1932 4. 58 - 1893 4. 58 - 1875 7. 57 - 2021 8. 55 - 2019 9. 54 - 1936 9. 54 - 1895 Warmest Christmas Eve Min Temps 1. 51 - 1982 2. 49 - 1877 3. 46 - 1893 3. 46 - 1889 5. 40 - 1888 6. 39 - 1931 7. 38 - 1932 8. 37 - 1979 8. 37 - 1875 Warmest Christmas Day Max Temps 1. 64 - 1982 2. 57 - 2019 3. 56 - 1936 3. 56 - 1895 5. 55 - 2021 5. 55 - 1971 7. 52 - 1994 7. 52 - 1893 7. 52 - 1891 10. 50 - 1940 10. 50 - 1877 Warmest Christmas Day Min Temps 1. 46 - 1936 2. 42 - 1940 2. 42 - 1877 4. 37 - 2019 5. 36 - 1982 6. 35 - 1957 6. 35 - 1941 6. 35 - 1888 6. 35 - 1881 10. 34 - 1973 10. 34 - 1923 10. 34 - 1913 10. 34 - 1891 Wettest Christmas Day 1. 0.50" - 1950 1. 0.50" - 1909 3. 0.47" - 1982 4. 0.46" - 2009 5. 0.38" - 1957 6. 0.35" - 1973 6. 0.35" - 1949 8. 0.34" - 1965 8. 0.34" - 1879 8. 0.34" - 1877

A few stats to watch for on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Top 10, if not top 5, a lock for pretty much each list. Warmest Christmas Eve Max Temps 1. 64 - 1889 2. 62 - 1982 3. 59 - 1877 4. 58 - 1932 4. 58 - 1893 4. 58 - 1875 7. 57 - 2021 8. 55 - 2019 9. 54 - 1936 9. 54 - 1895 Warmest Christmas Eve Min Temps 1. 51 - 1982 2. 49 - 1877 3. 46 - 1893 3. 46 - 1889 5. 40 - 1888 6. 39 - 1931 7. 38 - 1932 8. 37 - 1979 8. 37 - 1875 Warmest Christmas Day Max Temps 1. 64 - 1982 2. 57 - 2019 3. 56 - 1936 3. 56 - 1895 5. 55 - 2021 5. 55 - 1971 7. 52 - 1994 7. 52 - 1893 7. 52 - 1891 10. 50 - 1940 10. 50 - 1877 Warmest Christmas Day Min Temps 1. 46 - 1936 2. 42 - 1940 2. 42 - 1877 4. 37 - 2019 5. 36 - 1982 6. 35 - 1957 6. 35 - 1941 6. 35 - 1888 6. 35 - 1881 10. 34 - 1973 10. 34 - 1923 10. 34 - 1913 10. 34 - 1891 Wettest Christmas Day 1. 0.50" - 1950 1. 0.50" - 1909 3. 0.47" - 1982 4. 0.46" - 2009 5. 0.38" - 1957 6. 0.35" - 1973 6. 0.35" - 1949 8. 0.34" - 1965 8. 0.34" - 1879 8. 0.34" - 1877

we already have them in-ground. .

Will finally have something up tomorrow, but a few key points... -The pattern is changing, and significantly at that. -It is very clearly not going to be as significantly/consistently as mild as it has been. -There will be a steady/consistent flow of waves/disturbances moving into the Western US, and then across the country. -The chances for wintry storm potential are not amazing, but definitely an improvement compared to much of the past 1-2 months. -A SSWE is most definitely going to occur, with the effects TBD in the weeks after it occurs. -The MJO will make a 1-2 week pass through colder phases. -The raging Pacific jet is likely to break down to some degree.

There will be opportunity in January.

Top 5 warmest high, top 5 warmest low and top 5 wettest Christmas for Chicago is within reach based on current guidance.

This thread may get some work soon… .

i don’t think anyone in their right mind would ever forecast a +15 +/- departure for a given month. .

There were some snow showers/squalls that moved through the area yesterday morning/afternoon, associated with the ULL/cold front that swept through the region. The snow didn't amount to anything more than a trace at ORD, but some other areas picked up a few tenths of accumulation.

Given the location of the SW, the main/core of the cold will be on the other side of the NH. .

SW is most definitely going to occur, and the MJO is most definitely going to exit the COD somewhere into the 8-2 phase range (But yes, at low amplitude).

I know Ricky briefly touched on part of it...But why has it been so consistently mild/warm, and why will it generally continue into late month? The combination of a bigly/massive Pac jet, the MJO progressing through warmer phases, and the lack of consistent blocking of some sorts. Changes are in the future, though, including some significant stratospheric warming on deck. Will touch on that early next week...

Winds of change are on the horizon… .

your first mistake was subscribing to his blog. .

looking like the palm tree will go un-boxed into january. this will be the first such time since i've had it, which dates back to 2008 or so.

Solid agreement on ENS means for two weeks out. Merry Christmas. .

My in-depth thoughts... Punt till January.

I'd have waited another day or so on this one, due to the pattern. The 18z GFS is what you'd expect to get in this progressive pattern for much of our region...a glorified FROPA.

0.3" ORD, 0.1" MDW and 0.7" RFD with the snow overnight/this morning.

A dusting to 1.5" of snow is still on tap area wide through the morning, with the disturbance/storm system moving through.

For the stuff that isn't thread worthy...

I wouldn't get too caught up in the potential revolving around next weekend for several more days. We're shifting into a fairly progressive pattern, and there are several pieces that need to be well placed for things to work out. Guidance is a go for now...We'll see how things look come Wednesday/Thursday.

Everything favors a progressive pattern, so I wouldn't expect to see that cutoff idea come back and see reality.

that makes zero sense.

We'll be kicking off the calendar flip from November to December with a pattern that actually has some potential if you're looking for wintry weather. The main question is...Will it produce? We are quickly transitioning from one major pattern shift, which is bringing the current wintry period, to another major pattern shift. Similar to the current pattern, this next change will also be fairly short in duration, lasting only a week or so. This new pattern is very complex, blocky, and active all in one. We are seeing a fast-developing, potent -NAO ridge in the vicinity of Greenland, with a PV lobe trapped beneath it, anchored around the Hudson. Further west and south, we will be seeing a formidable -PNA develop for a time, with a fair bit of troughing in the west and also a slight flexing of the Southeast ridge. The -NAO/Hudson PV lobe combo will keep cold temperatures within reach and keep any potential activity from being too far northwest, while the Western troughing will provide numerous disturbances that will eject out across the country. On paper, this period has potential, but at the same time, it has the same amount of potential to feature strung-out/flat messes as well. In other words, keep a watch on things and don't rule out a surprise.