Chicago Storm

Forgot to mention...Had the first good t’storms of the year here late Friday night/early Saturday morning. The same activity that trained cyclone moved into portions of the area. Ended up with ~2” of rain during that period here, and 1.50”+ at ORD. ORD had 1.48” of rain on Saturday, which broke the daily precip record for the date of 1.26” (1977). .

Peak wind gusts of 55mph at ORD and 54mph at MDW. .

4,596 cases and 65 deaths as of today in IL.

3,491 cases and 47 deaths as of Saturday. .

TDS .

Nearby OBS of 59/59 at RPJ and 58/57 at RFD. That storm is north of the WF, but doing work. .

0z ILX sounding says it all...horrific all around... Edit: Apparently this was inaccurate, so deleted.

AR gonna take the cake for the day... The threat further north across IA/MO/IL is done, and that is fairly clear now.

While true, if it is a continued issue, it has also proven to also be a mitigating factor in significant/sustained severe. ...Which we have seen plenty of times before.

Literally beat me by a minute.

IA has produced under my expectations thus far, kind of surprised actually. I think that's not a good sign overall. For now looks like too much shear for the lacking instability.

CU is sparse and struggling to maintain south of US-36 in MO.

DP's have actually been falling across S-SE IA and NE MO.

Generally agree. IA into far NE MO and far W IL is the only area that is really interesting. However, even there you have to question the full quality of final recovery.

SPC holding on to that outlook is not going to fair well at all.

That activity across MO/AR/OK/TX is tied to a subtle wave that will rapidly push NE 15-18z. I noticed the wave on the NAM last evening, but didn’t think much of it until runs of the HRRR caught on to it and started showing activity with it. And here we sit now this morning with a large corridor of activity across the aforementioned areas, that will push across and near the main areas of interest through early afternoon. This definitely is a failure mode, and will likely prevent today from being what it could have been. .

I'll just put this here...

wut

Gave the NAM credit too soon... 18z run came in much slower, but still has the best environment across SE IA and W IL during late afternoon into the evening. 3km is laughably slower, with initiation at the KS/MO border at 18z.

3,026 cases and 34 deaths total in IL now.

NAM>Euro at this range. .

.

I’m not going to post a bunch of images, but take a look at the 9z RAP for Saturday... .

The NAM's are sig.

673 new cases and 7 new deaths in IL. 2,536 cases and 26 deaths total now.