Chicago Storm

CU is sparse and struggling to maintain south of US-36 in MO.

DP's have actually been falling across S-SE IA and NE MO.

Generally agree. IA into far NE MO and far W IL is the only area that is really interesting. However, even there you have to question the full quality of final recovery.

SPC holding on to that outlook is not going to fair well at all.

That activity across MO/AR/OK/TX is tied to a subtle wave that will rapidly push NE 15-18z. I noticed the wave on the NAM last evening, but didn’t think much of it until runs of the HRRR caught on to it and started showing activity with it. And here we sit now this morning with a large corridor of activity across the aforementioned areas, that will push across and near the main areas of interest through early afternoon. This definitely is a failure mode, and will likely prevent today from being what it could have been. .

I'll just put this here...

wut

Gave the NAM credit too soon... 18z run came in much slower, but still has the best environment across SE IA and W IL during late afternoon into the evening. 3km is laughably slower, with initiation at the KS/MO border at 18z.

3,026 cases and 34 deaths total in IL now.

NAM>Euro at this range. .

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I’m not going to post a bunch of images, but take a look at the 9z RAP for Saturday... .

The NAM's are sig.

673 new cases and 7 new deaths in IL. 2,536 cases and 26 deaths total now.

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Continue to closely monitor Saturday for a potential local-ish chase. There several things to like, but also several things to hate about the set-up at this point.

I guess maybe the good news is that we are not seeing their numbers jump much higher now? Deaths per day seem to have leveled off to a 650-750 range, which is obviously not good, but luckily the trend upward has not continued.

They're not. However, the main point is that the $ will be just an advancement on your 2020 tax return. So come next year, there's gonna be a lot of unhappy people.

Can’t help but lol at the people (which is many) who actually think they’re about to get “free” money from the government. .

Spain is in way worse shape than Italy...and that's kind of hard to accomplish...

Yea, people followed the shelter-in-place order for about two days. Local traffic was back to usual Wednesday standards around here, with pretty much any business that was open having a decently filled lot. And I should point out there are a lot of non-essential businesses that are still open. Tons of people were outdoors too, with the nice weather today.

1,865 cases and 19 deaths total in IL now. 300+ new cases and 3 new deaths, since yesterday.

At that point I had only looked at the GFS, given it was only GFS/Euro out far enough.

I'll even chalk an lol up on this one.

The rare IL dry-line is looking like a good possibility. However...lapse rates look poor and the potential for widespread warm sector debris is high.