Chicago Storm
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm
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You can totally toss the NAM. .
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TSSN in far NW MO. .
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It’s not going to mean too much, given ample advection from the southwest. Virga and top down saturation has already started into DVN and ILX CWA’s. .
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Toss the NAM. It’s still having sig dry air issues...among other issues.
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You’re golden. .
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The 0.2” on the 24th was eventually added back in. .
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One thing that will fight that is the main plume/band of precip will be heavier and convective. .
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Everything continues to cave south... .
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It bumped south again. The para GFS also bumped south. Just another nod for the more southern guidance. .
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The difference isn’t all in the thermals with the UKMET/GEM/RGEM vs others though. They are further south altogether with the wave and QPF axis. .
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Congrats tomorrow-Wednesday. .
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GEM continues to hold firm on wave 1, with the UKMET not too far off. The GFS/Euro continue to bump south each run. .
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The GFS has been bumping south each run, and the UKMET was in similar range of the GEM. .
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Fantasy HRRR, but not far off the GEM solution. .
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Only goes to 90hrs, but aloft would suggest it would end up potential south of 12z. More ridging ahead of the closing off wave, however like the GFS, the northern stream is pressing in more across Canada. .
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It has to do with the pattern further north. The wave ends up shearing out to the east.
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It won't matter if the system is as significant as modeled.
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Fairly large bump south coming from the Euro for Tue/Wed lead wave.
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Makes sense. Trend is good for now at least, and appears Euro will follow as well with a bump south.
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I'd disagree overall. Fairly solid agreement on a swath of at least 3-6" across portions of IA/WI/IL/MI. South end of it, yea still a question. Will depend on how strong WAA is, with this wave lacking any significant SLP.
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It doesn't hurt to have the lead wave trend south in this case. Definitely fully in play for both events still.
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UKMET continuing the tend of bumping south for the Tue-Wed lead wave. .
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Tue/Wed wave continues to trend south on most guidance. Decent snows into the LOT CWA now. .
