Chicago Storm

HRRR has been consistent in showing the best potential in/ near the new SPC ENH. Can’t believe I’m going to say it, but looks like good positioning by Broyles. About damn time. .

This first small MCS racing east along the WI/IL border will be of no issue for later activity. If it can sustain, it could produce in IN/MI/OH later. .

Definitely still need an ENH based on 0z guidance, and definitely shifted/expanded south and southwest as well. .

That and the track of individual disturbances/MCV’s. I agree with further south than what SPC has as well...and a larger area of quality risk. .

I don’t think the morning WAA activity will play any role at all, but agree on the last part. .

I’ll have more later, but *if* everything works out, could see a moderate risk needed across portions of NE IA/N IL/S WI/W MI for tomorrow. I’m big on the wind potential. Edit: And think SPC will have to bring the 5% tor down into S WI and N IL more.

It’s still there. .

You’ve really fallen to low hanging fruit levels, haven’t ya. .

I was going to mention this in the medium range thread tonight, but you beat me to it. Looks like we head into a period of -EPO/-PNA, which will help flex a ridge across the Central/Eastern US. How long it lasts and how significant the heat will be is obviously still TBD... But it looks like a good chance we'll add to the 90+ total before entering July. As you mention, there is good ENS. Obviously wouldn't take an OP run at face value this far out...But the 18z GFS from yesterday was on the more extreme side, with 11 consecutive days of 90+ potential starting Friday, with even a day at 100. On the flip side, the 18z GFS today had only 4 consecutive days with around 90+ potential, with daily t'storm potential keeping things in check.

Still got 90’s to look forward to. .

zzz .

Today looks like a similar threat as was seen on Saturday. Isolated severe, but nothing widespread...and with more widespread rain and general t'storms.

Looks like increasing potential for the SAL to make it into portions of the region, next weekend into early the following week.

Classic Broyles. He seriously has no business having a job at SPC.

91 ORD and 90 MDW today...with 87 here, limited by an earlier t'storm. 7th 90+ day on the year for ORD already.

I just like to give everyone a nickname.

Fatman did some good things and some bad things during this stretch in IL...but the requirement of masks and slow re-opening seems to be working for now. Shall see how numbers look come August, after restrictions really relax heading into early July. .

93 at ORD, MDW and here today. .

90 at ORD today. 5th 90+ day on the year. 89’d here and 87 MDW. .

First serial derecho in the region in quite a while. .

91 at ORD and MDW today. 88 here, with a bit more clouds being further west. .

"Storm" earlier just after 3PM with the initial feeder band ended up having enough wind to take down a ~1 foot diameter tree in the neighbors yard. Rapid increase in synoptic winds recently now, just took down another tree in a different neighbors yards. Could hear cracking of likely smaller branches in the distance with the bigger gusts.

A bit south of IKK a bit ago...

Several rotating showers in southern LOT CWA currently.

18z ILX sounding was tropical...