Chicago Storm

Yea, growing support for tomorrow to be a hotter day for sure. I’d probably go with 95 as it looks now. .

Trend on guidance today has been to extend the 90+ potential into Friday. .

89’d at ORD and here today. Edit: Late rally to hit 90 at home (23).

My issue with Thur is the TC remnants potential. Think the combination of cooling UA temps and potentially an increase in clouds/moisture will put a limit on temps. Thur could end up hotter than Tue if that back-door front idea happens, but if not...Tue will still be the hotter day of the two.

I'd probably go under on all of those. Wed is looking like the only slam dunk mid-upper 90's day at this point.

Other guidance shows it as well, pretty much a back-door front. Previous runs had kept it further north in WI/MI, but there have been some runs further south.

And so it begins... “Only” hit 88° at ORD yesterday. Mixing was only to 875mb, which limited high temps. Deeper mixing to 850mb would have supported about 91°. Today increasing clouds will be an issue, along with mixing to only 875mb once again...though UA temps are a bit warmer than yesterday. I’m guessing the high will be limited to about 88° due to the mixing issue and cloud combo. Deeper mixing would have supported about 92°. Tomorrow will likely have some of the same issues as today. Deeper mixing into better UA environment would support about 93°, though I’m guessing we will be limited to 90°.

I went back and looked at re-analysis on several 100+ days since the late 1950's... Common theme is the thermals at 925/850mb on the Euro meet or exceed all of the 100+ days that I checked, minus 1995.

Easily would top 100 with those thermals. .

but wizard021 said grave danger was coming.

Euro continues to show 925mb temps of 30-32C across portions of the area Tue-Thur next week. .

Still several days out, and we’ve seen medium range heat fade this summer before, but... Records could be in play, with 95 Tue and 97 Wed records that could be within reach for ORD. .

EPS has a mean high temp at ORD of 96 and 97 for Tue and Wed. .

yea, shout out to spartman...thanks for this heat wave. .

Should add that with this period, this summer will break the record for warmest summer on record in Chicago...and it very well may blown out, if things pan out. Plan on starting the process of pulling some stats on things tonight. .

I’ll go over. .

GFS finally caved and now shows the heat wave. The main difference now is that it has much higher DP’s than the Euro, thus less mixing/cooler temps. In this setup that is more of an unrealistic solution. .

who even compared it to 1953. .

Let’s try this again. .

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Feedback will definitely help in this case. A more iffy day such as Friday could easily be 90° now, given the feedback and ORD warm bias.

Where did you find that info? .

Euro, EPS and GEM are all still onboard for a heat wave from Fri through late next week. Euro/GEM both still have a few days near 100° as well.

Quite a difference on guidance for the next week. Euro and EPS have a heat wave, Fri-Wed with near 100° temps on Mon/Tue. On the flip side, the GFS and GEFS are much cooler. GEM is more in between. .

Euro weeklies are a very torchy for Sept. .