Chicago Storm

Initial storm came through here with 50-55MPH winds, and isolated tree damage. Have had a few other bursts of 40mph+ winds with a few embedded cells from time to time. Also have been in a mini train, with 1.59" of rain in last 40mins and still coming down.

Even with a great environment, it looks like SFC inversion as noted on 20z DKB sounding could limited wind potential north of I-88. Thermal OFB has pushed north of MDW now, and runs to ARR or so now.

That storm approaching DKB is right in the heart of the jet streak. If it can maintain, which it has so far, could be a sig wind threat with it into the western metro. .

Line unzipping by DBQ more now, as well as other activity in NW IL now. .

A nice line segment has taken shape across SW WI. There is an axis of TCU from that line segment on WSW to Waterloo, and we'll likely see that unzip with time.

Per meso analysis, there is actually a good to great environment in place across E IA/N IL. All of the activity that has moved through this afternoon has been elevated, thus not disrupting the environment to a significant degree.

Yea, not sure I agree with their overall idea there. They seem focused on the OFB for robust/severe activity, and only make a glancing mentioned of development further west later. When in reality, and threat of robust/severe development along the retreating OFB is likely minimal, and the greater threat is with what develops west.

Pretty much within where the SPC has the ENH risk. Not saying it's needed, because it's not as of now. But if things worked out perfectly, could see the need for one.

Complex setup up unfolding with several moving pieces. Liking the ENH still, but could see the eventual need for a MOD if things work out perfectly.

Good things always happen when KLOT goes down on a severe wx day.

Already getting flooding where I am right now in Arlington Heights. .

This arc of activity currently moving though appears to be the expected WAA/WF storms. The small cluster earlier was tied the initial passing MCV. Activity behind this arc, around DVN, is fading with good clearing behind it. .

Stuff along the river is fading. .

The HRRR seems to have the best handle on thing overall currently. As you said, still way early, and I have little to no worry as of now. .

HRRR has been consistent in showing the best potential in/ near the new SPC ENH. Can’t believe I’m going to say it, but looks like good positioning by Broyles. About damn time. .

This first small MCS racing east along the WI/IL border will be of no issue for later activity. If it can sustain, it could produce in IN/MI/OH later. .

Definitely still need an ENH based on 0z guidance, and definitely shifted/expanded south and southwest as well. .

That and the track of individual disturbances/MCV’s. I agree with further south than what SPC has as well...and a larger area of quality risk. .

I don’t think the morning WAA activity will play any role at all, but agree on the last part. .

I’ll have more later, but *if* everything works out, could see a moderate risk needed across portions of NE IA/N IL/S WI/W MI for tomorrow. I’m big on the wind potential. Edit: And think SPC will have to bring the 5% tor down into S WI and N IL more.

It’s still there. .

You’ve really fallen to low hanging fruit levels, haven’t ya. .

I was going to mention this in the medium range thread tonight, but you beat me to it. Looks like we head into a period of -EPO/-PNA, which will help flex a ridge across the Central/Eastern US. How long it lasts and how significant the heat will be is obviously still TBD... But it looks like a good chance we'll add to the 90+ total before entering July. As you mention, there is good ENS. Obviously wouldn't take an OP run at face value this far out...But the 18z GFS from yesterday was on the more extreme side, with 11 consecutive days of 90+ potential starting Friday, with even a day at 100. On the flip side, the 18z GFS today had only 4 consecutive days with around 90+ potential, with daily t'storm potential keeping things in check.

Still got 90’s to look forward to. .

zzz .