Chicago Storm

It’s still early obviously... But given that activity last night/this morning made it well south into NE IL and the final cluster of activity around MKE is kicking out another OFB...90+ is unlikely across the metro. Might struggle to even get mid-upper 80’s. .

97 ORD (27), 96 MDW (21) and 95 here (25) today. .

Probably a combination of the higher DP’s and the disturbance quickly sliding ESE across S WI. .

Anddd there it is, 97 ORD. .

I think it'll be hard to miss out on the front and outflow, given the support among guidance. Most guidance does recover into the low-mid 90's though.

Make that 96 now. .

Up to 95 at ORD now. .

Euro has 95, and I'm not sure it'll be too far off. ORD flat-lined at 92/93.

Smoke extends across the whole region already. Up to 89 at MKE.

Peak of 93 at ORD thus far.

I'll go under. Even the Euro and its warmer thermal does not hit 100.

HRRR has 96/97 for today now. If that happens, would mean things are lining up more with the Euro thermals than the GFS...As Euro has 28C at 925mb this afternoon, while GFS only has 25C. .

0.47" here on the month, and all but 0.04" of that was on derecho day.

I know Alek brought it up a couple days ago, but of concern could be wildfire smoke from out west...which could also keep high temps in check a bit this week. .

92 ORD (26), 90 MDW (20) and 91 here (24) today.

laura headed for south florida. .

My thoughts on this period... For this weekend what I thought vs reality...Ended up being a bit cooler on Fri/Sat than expected, due to less mixing than expected. Fri 90/88, Sat 91/89, Sun 92/92* (*So far). This period will not only be the hottest period of the year, but likely will surpass Sept 2017 as the hottest period since July 2012. My guess at it... Mon 95, Tue 96, Wed 97, Thur 96, Fri 90 Of concern would be back-door front and t'storm potential nearby Mon night/Tue morning, which could limit Tue high temps...and then what happens with TC remnants for Fri. Both days could end up hotter/cooler. Euro would suggest Wed has a shot at 100, but it is alone in that idea, well warmer with 925mb temps than other guidance.

Records in play for Chicago this week... Tue... Record High: 95 (2003) Record Max Low: 74 (1959) Wed... Record High: 97 (1973) Record Max Low: 77 (1973) Thur... Record High: 97 (1973) Record Max Low: 78 (2018)

Can’t wait to see what the HRRR shows for Tue-Thur. .

Yea, growing support for tomorrow to be a hotter day for sure. I’d probably go with 95 as it looks now. .

Trend on guidance today has been to extend the 90+ potential into Friday. .

89’d at ORD and here today. Edit: Late rally to hit 90 at home (23).

My issue with Thur is the TC remnants potential. Think the combination of cooling UA temps and potentially an increase in clouds/moisture will put a limit on temps. Thur could end up hotter than Tue if that back-door front idea happens, but if not...Tue will still be the hotter day of the two.

I'd probably go under on all of those. Wed is looking like the only slam dunk mid-upper 90's day at this point.

Other guidance shows it as well, pretty much a back-door front. Previous runs had kept it further north in WI/MI, but there have been some runs further south.