Chicago Storm

HRRR has 96/97 for today now. If that happens, would mean things are lining up more with the Euro thermals than the GFS...As Euro has 28C at 925mb this afternoon, while GFS only has 25C. .

0.47" here on the month, and all but 0.04" of that was on derecho day.

I know Alek brought it up a couple days ago, but of concern could be wildfire smoke from out west...which could also keep high temps in check a bit this week. .

92 ORD (26), 90 MDW (20) and 91 here (24) today.

laura headed for south florida. .

My thoughts on this period... For this weekend what I thought vs reality...Ended up being a bit cooler on Fri/Sat than expected, due to less mixing than expected. Fri 90/88, Sat 91/89, Sun 92/92* (*So far). This period will not only be the hottest period of the year, but likely will surpass Sept 2017 as the hottest period since July 2012. My guess at it... Mon 95, Tue 96, Wed 97, Thur 96, Fri 90 Of concern would be back-door front and t'storm potential nearby Mon night/Tue morning, which could limit Tue high temps...and then what happens with TC remnants for Fri. Both days could end up hotter/cooler. Euro would suggest Wed has a shot at 100, but it is alone in that idea, well warmer with 925mb temps than other guidance.

Records in play for Chicago this week... Tue... Record High: 95 (2003) Record Max Low: 74 (1959) Wed... Record High: 97 (1973) Record Max Low: 77 (1973) Thur... Record High: 97 (1973) Record Max Low: 78 (2018)

Can’t wait to see what the HRRR shows for Tue-Thur. .

Yea, growing support for tomorrow to be a hotter day for sure. I’d probably go with 95 as it looks now. .

Trend on guidance today has been to extend the 90+ potential into Friday. .

89’d at ORD and here today. Edit: Late rally to hit 90 at home (23).

My issue with Thur is the TC remnants potential. Think the combination of cooling UA temps and potentially an increase in clouds/moisture will put a limit on temps. Thur could end up hotter than Tue if that back-door front idea happens, but if not...Tue will still be the hotter day of the two.

I'd probably go under on all of those. Wed is looking like the only slam dunk mid-upper 90's day at this point.

Other guidance shows it as well, pretty much a back-door front. Previous runs had kept it further north in WI/MI, but there have been some runs further south.

And so it begins... “Only” hit 88° at ORD yesterday. Mixing was only to 875mb, which limited high temps. Deeper mixing to 850mb would have supported about 91°. Today increasing clouds will be an issue, along with mixing to only 875mb once again...though UA temps are a bit warmer than yesterday. I’m guessing the high will be limited to about 88° due to the mixing issue and cloud combo. Deeper mixing would have supported about 92°. Tomorrow will likely have some of the same issues as today. Deeper mixing into better UA environment would support about 93°, though I’m guessing we will be limited to 90°.

I went back and looked at re-analysis on several 100+ days since the late 1950's... Common theme is the thermals at 925/850mb on the Euro meet or exceed all of the 100+ days that I checked, minus 1995.

Easily would top 100 with those thermals. .

but wizard021 said grave danger was coming.

Euro continues to show 925mb temps of 30-32C across portions of the area Tue-Thur next week. .

Still several days out, and we’ve seen medium range heat fade this summer before, but... Records could be in play, with 95 Tue and 97 Wed records that could be within reach for ORD. .

EPS has a mean high temp at ORD of 96 and 97 for Tue and Wed. .

yea, shout out to spartman...thanks for this heat wave. .

Should add that with this period, this summer will break the record for warmest summer on record in Chicago...and it very well may blown out, if things pan out. Plan on starting the process of pulling some stats on things tonight. .

I’ll go over. .

GFS finally caved and now shows the heat wave. The main difference now is that it has much higher DP’s than the Euro, thus less mixing/cooler temps. In this setup that is more of an unrealistic solution. .