Chicago Storm

0z GFS caving significantly, however still has work to be done.

For those keeping early score, the 0z NAM is very GFS-like.

Looking into things even further... The GFS also ejects out the whole 1st wave that comes into the West Coast tomorrow night. This 1st wave gets picked up by the northern stream, leading to the further south/potent northern stream in Canada/northern US, effectively suppressing the main ejection for Monday. The Euro/GEM do not eject out the whole 1st wave, instead holding it mostly back in the West...with the 2nd wave then also moving into the West. Ejection occurs as a whole on the Euro/GEM, with the less potent/south northern stream.

Indeed. This is also the same reason the GEM is more amped and further north as well. The Ukie is actually not too far off as well, which is why it’s sort of the middle ground between the GEM/Euro and GFS. Should point out the trend with the past few events was for the northern stream to be modeled too far south/potent several days out, only to end up further north/relaxed/less of influence as time went on and in reality. So with that said, I’d be less concerned about a well miss south, and more for a miss just north.

you’re never gonna get it.

12z EPS Mean...

You have it a bit off there. It’s been the GEM/Ukie camp rolling the Euro/GFS all winter.

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12z Euro about to be a mega dog. .

Numerous 2-3.5” reports coming in from McHenry Co. likely the same for other areas where that band traversed. .

TSSN near Elgin. .

Hit an area of +SN with peak vis down close to 1/8M for a time a bit ago near Warrenville.

For the first time this season there’s actually going to be a large reservoir of cold air nearby for the multi-wave period in question. .

The “marginally cold air” part is not correct in this case. .

Miss north incoming. lol @ guidance. .

energy consolidating around energy is always the best. .

High ratios didn’t happen at ORD, that’s for sure. .

It’s probably a close 2nd to the GEM. This multiple wave period is still 5-9 days out though. .

you should try a red pine, if you haven’t already. they’re not as bulky as many other pines/spruces. .

dawn redwoods are great. a rare conifer that actually produces fall color. .

almost time for that outside shot at february severe. .

Speaking of... 11 out of 18 April’s from 2000-2017 featured under 1” of monthly snowfall.

Forgot to add in my last comment that 5 of the top 20 snowiest April’s have occurred since 2000...and 2018/2019/2020 are 3 of those 5. .