Chicago Storm

it’s been a while. .

And that’s 10:1... .

Indeed. Solid jump back northward. .

Between tonight and tomorrow night. .

6z EPS mean... .

6z Euro only goes to 90hrs, but would end up similar to 0z. .

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0z GEFS range from a suppressed non-event, to a congrats OMA-LSE. Probably the best they’ve looked yet. .

i had a good run in winter 13-14’. .

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It does, which is partially due to the 1st wave ejecting out and interacting with the northern wave. .

Big difference is that it now ejects out most of the 1st wave, which leads to other slight changes. Looks like this is what the potential will hinge on, and we should know how that’ll end up by tomorrow night. .

0z GEM went the opposite direction, and looks similar to 0z GFS. .

0z GFS caving significantly, however still has work to be done.

For those keeping early score, the 0z NAM is very GFS-like.

Looking into things even further... The GFS also ejects out the whole 1st wave that comes into the West Coast tomorrow night. This 1st wave gets picked up by the northern stream, leading to the further south/potent northern stream in Canada/northern US, effectively suppressing the main ejection for Monday. The Euro/GEM do not eject out the whole 1st wave, instead holding it mostly back in the West...with the 2nd wave then also moving into the West. Ejection occurs as a whole on the Euro/GEM, with the less potent/south northern stream.

Indeed. This is also the same reason the GEM is more amped and further north as well. The Ukie is actually not too far off as well, which is why it’s sort of the middle ground between the GEM/Euro and GFS. Should point out the trend with the past few events was for the northern stream to be modeled too far south/potent several days out, only to end up further north/relaxed/less of influence as time went on and in reality. So with that said, I’d be less concerned about a well miss south, and more for a miss just north.

you’re never gonna get it.

12z EPS Mean...

You have it a bit off there. It’s been the GEM/Ukie camp rolling the Euro/GFS all winter.

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12z Euro about to be a mega dog. .

Numerous 2-3.5” reports coming in from McHenry Co. likely the same for other areas where that band traversed. .