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Chicago Storm

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Everything posted by Chicago Storm

  1. Chicago Storm
    GEM has 30” in parts of IA. .
  2. Chicago Storm
    12z GEM bumped north, to the current consensus. .
  3. Chicago Storm
    12z GFS a bit south.
  4. Chicago Storm
    Measuring will be in good hands for this event. .
  5. Chicago Storm
    It’s definitely a believable scenario. However, I would be cautioned regarding it until the 0z runs tonight. Currently the wave that leads to the increased confluence is well north in Canada, across the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. There is some sampling that occurs up there, but it’s sparse. For the 0z runs tonight the wave will have pushed south into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which has a bit more RAOB coverage. .
  6. Chicago Storm
    And the new 12z RGEM does exactly this... A bit less confluence in the Lakes/Northeast, which allows shearing of the wave to occur a bit later. This makes for heavier totals further east, east of the Mississippi...but also allowed for a bump north as well. .
  7. Chicago Storm
    If the confluence can slacken a bit over the Lakes, that would likely help. However, that could also lead to a bump north as it pushes east of the Mississippi. .
  8. Chicago Storm
    It’s just not supported right now. On just about all guidance (minus several ENS), the wave still peaks out west and then steadily shears...and that’s what we’re going to get if that occurs. We had an even in the eastern part of our region like this years ago, might have been late 2000’s. System shredded fairly rapidly. .
  9. Chicago Storm
    6z RGEM and GEM bumped north. 6z Euro. Still snowing from IA on east... .
  10. Chicago Storm
    Still a decent spread on GEFS, but the mean remained fairly consistent... .
  11. Chicago Storm
    6z NAM bumped, but still has some work to do... 6z GFS remained solid... .
  12. Chicago Storm
    0z EPS Mean .
  13. Chicago Storm
    part 2...
  14. Chicago Storm
    gonna take this way back, and do it like we did in the olden days. .
  15. Chicago Storm
    Appears 0z Euro will also bump NW early on. But as the case with other 0z guidance, there’s more confluence over the Lakes/Northeast and the wave is peaking out west. .
  16. Chicago Storm
    What does the 384hr GFS have to do with next week. .
  17. Chicago Storm
    0z GEM .
  18. Chicago Storm
    Not necessarily, due to the other moving pieces in this case. .
  19. Chicago Storm
    0z GEM following the trend of bumping NW early on and peaking west, then shearing steadily east. .
  20. Chicago Storm
    I don’t believe so, given the system peaks out west. It would be steadily trending down with eastward extent. Some ENS have shown this, and it’s a clear trend for now. .
  21. Chicago Storm
    Definitely suppressed south. .
  22. Chicago Storm
    It does not. Solid bump NW. .
  23. Chicago Storm
    Solid bump NW early on. Question is will it do what the RGEM did. .
  24. Chicago Storm
    And indeed that's the case. Ended up a good bit further north to start, but ends up only a tick north further east due to the aforementioned confluence over the Lakes/Northeast.
  25. Chicago Storm
    Bad news is slightly more confluence over Lakes/Northeast...Which means it'll shear out fairly quickly to the east. So win/loss there.
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