Chicago Storm

The NAM has come in and reversed a bit of the bleeding that was happening on guidance last night. Would suggest a quality threat with the MCV from the Chicago metro into SW MI and N IN during the mid afternoon through early tonight. Then it has a sig environment in E IA and NW IL during the evening and into early tonight. The cloud cover and precip shield with the hurricane over IA this morning has been steadily fading, with a good deal of clearing already across MO and C/S IL. Everything seems to be on track for now.

90 ORD, 91 MDW, 93 RFD and 93 at ex home on today. 13 - RFD 13 - Ex home 9 - ORD 8 - MDW .

Could envision a moderate risk being needed if guidance up until this point remains consistent. .

MCV interacting with the warm front is easily better than just relying on the cold front. Guidance that has the MCV focused threat (Which is just about all guidance), does have a more back low level flow, in addition to a much stronger flow aloft (850/700/500). Soundings on guidance that have the MCV focused threat also look much better than those that do not. Additionally, the threat post MCV threat would still be quality, given you'd likely be dealing with a cold front and OFB intersection across E IA into N IL later.

It definitely has more potential with the MCV involved. .

90 ORD, 90 MDW, 94 RFD and 92 at ex home on Friday. 12 - RFD 12 - Ex home 8 - ORD 7 - MDW .

Sunday could be significant. Highly dependent on the evolution of an MCV tomorrow night in the Plains though. .

45-55MPH wind gusts at all metro area OBS sites, with the line of t’storms that moved through. .

It’s still 80° here at ORD as of 4AM. .

Severe threat was always iffy, but an MCS was pretty much expected.

93 RFD and 92 at ex home today. 11 - RFD 11 - Ex home 7 - ORD 6 - MDW

Tornado threat was always slim to none.

Easily overdone.

*Night. .

Yep, out west is golden.

one last chance bump for anyone that wants to get onboard, before it’s too late. .

Kind of two sided... If you want rain/storms, the GFS is your pick...If you want a shot of 2 days of heat, the Euro is your pick. .

falling dew points? .

How are the palms? .

Beware of the Jan-March total though, as it’s an unmanned station, thus winter/snow liquid was probably underreported. .

92 RFD and 91 at ex home today. 10 - RFD 10 - Ex home 7 - ORD 6 - MDW .

I’ll stick with under. .

93 ORD, 92 MDW, 95 RFD and 94 ex home today. 9 - RFD 9 - Ex home 7 - ORD 6 - MDW .

we were told it wouldn't hit 89+ for the foreseeable future at DAY/CVG/IND, and that June was being punted.

Storm total of 1.50” at ORD. 1.40” of that fell in an hour. .