Chicago Storm

The NAM is alone on an island, easy toss. .

I’ve been out in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area this weekend, and there’s still a lot of tree damage in CID even now 8 months after the derecho. Driving through the neighborhood on the west side of downtown, you notice a relative minimum of trees left standing...and the ones that are still standing have significant damage. Still numerous piles of tree debris curbside on some streets. Came across a few buildings and houses that are still significantly damaged and have been untouched, and wooded areas (such as alongside 380) where it reminds me of a forest blow down. .

First and final... DAB. .

18z Euro bumped back NW. .

SE is the trend, and probably the way to go for now. .

OP GFS continues to be on the SE side of guidance. .

thanks for the positive vibes. .

ENS support is about as good as you’ll get for mid-late April... .

good luck with that. .

ENS have been on that for a while. Playing out as expected. .

That is one thing, though if it is delayed, it wouldn’t be significantly. The typhoon really should help to keep things from being too delayed. One potential issue that needs not to happen is for a Hudson low to hang on, but not too concerned as of now. .

Yea pretty much like I said before, very tail end of April and start of May is when the change will occur. Anyone that knows anything is pretty much onboard with that now it seems. Still some things that could go wrong, but signs are very encouraging at this distance. .

The MJO has been active, but it really hasn’t had an affect on the pattern overall since last year. .

ya’ll like to go in circles too often. need some new material. .

Not a significant enough eruption.

And in this case, it’s not going to lead to an Eastern US trough. .

None. .

now’s the time with the new st. louis climo. .

things are on the same level of popping out here in the burbs. .

closing in on spartman bad. .

That’s not an omega block. .

As it looks now, the first potential for change would be during the last weekend/last week of April (24-30th). Wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being the first week of May instead though, given how shifts often are delayed. .

lol .

It never really looked all that cool, more seasonable to even a bit above. .

Peak of 80 here at ORD thus far today. Edit: 81 for a high.