Chicago Storm

too bad it’s a trash model. .

94 ORD/RFD/ex home and 93 MDW today. 21 - RFD20 - Ex home16 - MDW14 - ORD

90 ORD, 91 MDW, and 92 at RFD and ex home today. 20 - RFD19 - Ex home15 - MDW13 - ORD

92 ORD, 93 MDW and ex home, and 94 RFD today. 19 - RFD18 - Ex home14 - MDW12 - ORD

luckily it’s still a ways away. .

91 MDW, 90 RFD and ex home today. ORD was 89’d. 18 - RFD 17 - Ex home 13 - MDW 11 - ORD .

zzz .

It definitely took a few degrees off of the high temp a few days ago (20th). It’ll likely do the same in the coming days that feature the same thickness. It also doesn’t help that the smoke is dispersed throughout the atmosphere over a large part of the region, instead of just at one layer aloft. .

Smoke making it down to the surface once again this afternoon, with vis ranging from 5-9SM across NE IL/Chicago metro.

RFD the only noteworthy site in the area to go 90+ today, with 90. 17 - RFD 16 - Ex home 12 - MDW 11 - ORD The smoke probably prevented a more widespread area from hitting 90. .

Lowest vis with the smoke at ORD has been 6SM. .

Down to 6SM vis at ENW and UGN. .

usually someone starts a summer one, but apparently we’re behind the ball. .

we're the best at what we do.

For those in N IL/Chicago metro, don't expect that complex out west to come rolling through with any interest. 0z DVN sounding is underwhelming to say the least...And mesoanalysis is way overdone. EDIT: Disregard the above. COD having issues per usual these days, and the 0z sounding it showed me was actually from 12z. The environment is hot...carry on.

That was the kind of event the whole sun-forum pays for, for a lengthy time. .

TOG about one county worth of distance WNW of Hawkeye. .

IA is the only play.

6z 3km NAM isn’t handling things well. .

Not surprisingly, the SPC’s NAM is much too far north and slow still with the current evolution, and is toss worthy. Luckily they have at least some sense of awareness, and have baby stepped south the past two outlook cycles. Edit: To add... The 6z NAM is about the size of Iowa off on the placement of the MCV currently. (And much too slow as I mentioned)

Not per say. The issue is that it will heavily dictate what happens the rest of the day... Including where development occurs in the afternoon, and the severity. .

SPC still clueless. No mention at all of the large/loose MCS that will originate in the Plains tonight, making it through MN/IA/WI the first half of the day. Instead all we get is this... Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along the front during the morning to the north and northeast of the surface low, from northeastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa. These storms should be elevated initially and are forecast to move east-northeastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. A surface-based convective cluster is expected to develop out of this activity.

SPC’s current SWOD2 is terrible. They really need to stop solely forecasting off the NAM. .

Environment overall is terrible, but enhanced LL SRH associated with the MCV is enough to do it. .

OMA had a peak gust of 96mph with the derecho last night, which is the highest report I’ve seen. 84mph in Grand Island was the second highest. Then that smaller MCS that came into W. NE had a peak of 88mph at Alliance. .