Chicago Storm

Record and historic has nothing to do with headlines. There is criteria for a reason. .

No, that trough is pretty much the end point of the current pattern as it exits. Can see the whole evolution nicely on a 500mb loop. .

I'd be hesitant to get too hyped about the Euro at this range. We've seen too many times where the first trough in a pattern change is the sacrifice for the greater good of later times.

Indeed. I've been hitting for a while now that the tail end of April into the start of May is when the change would occur, though there was the possibility that it could be delayed a touch. The good news is that it really doesn't look like it will be delayed at all, with the large scale change occurring next week. The mid-week trough/storm system next week is already gaining a ton of attention because of the Euro output for widespread/significant severe opportunity across the Central US. However, I wouldn't fully jump on that one as of yet, as often times the lead trough tends to be the "sacrifice" for the main pattern change. Beyond next week, it appears we could have the PAC jet extension come into the equation for the first week or two of May. If that does indeed occur, it'll be off to the races. Things are definitely looking up those for those looking at more consistent warmth/t'storm/severe t'storm opportunities across the Central US. There could be some bumps in the road, especially since AO/NAO/Canada lobe will try to fight back at times, but things are looking positive for now overall.

The large scale pattern change will be occurring as expected next week.

Looks like final snowfall totals of 3-5" in the KC metro area (As Don mentioned earlier), and 1-3" in the Springfield, MO area...Obviously a record event for those areas. Looks like a dusting to 2" reports down around STL.

nice cherry pick. .

Easy over. .

The event is ongoing, pointless to look now. Both the NAM and Euro did best, when it looked like they were easy toss outliers. .

NAM > all for this event. Horrible UKMET performance. .

sure. .

lol .

Most other guidance is nearly that far south now (tossing the NAM and Euro). .

.

can’t figure out why anyone ever posts 10:1 maps. .

This might even be a reach. .

who cares. .

If a majority of guidance is right, 0.2” is even a stretch. .

The NAM is alone on an island, easy toss. .

I’ve been out in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area this weekend, and there’s still a lot of tree damage in CID even now 8 months after the derecho. Driving through the neighborhood on the west side of downtown, you notice a relative minimum of trees left standing...and the ones that are still standing have significant damage. Still numerous piles of tree debris curbside on some streets. Came across a few buildings and houses that are still significantly damaged and have been untouched, and wooded areas (such as alongside 380) where it reminds me of a forest blow down. .

First and final... DAB. .

18z Euro bumped back NW. .

SE is the trend, and probably the way to go for now. .

OP GFS continues to be on the SE side of guidance. .

thanks for the positive vibes. .