Chicago Storm

based purely historical stats, nov 5th.

Taking a look at fall during higher-amplitude El Niño episodes... October temps have generally finished near to slightly below average, although there have been a few instances of well below average temperatures. Precip tends to finish near to below average, with one notably wet outlier. Snowfall also generally ends up near average, although average October snowfall is minimal to begin with. November has shown a stronger tendency toward cool conditions, with temps generally finishing a bit below to well below average. There is, however, one notable well above average outlier. Precip becomes much more variable in November, with outcomes ranging from below normal to well above normal precipitation. Snowfall follows a similarly mixed pattern, with a fairly wide range of outcomes, from below average to well above average. ...Normal/Average... Oct Temp: 54.0° Oct Precip: 3.43" Oct Snow: 0.2" Nov Temp: 41.3° Nov Precip: 2.42" Nov Snow: 1.8" ...2015... (Fall - Strong/Super El Nino) Oct Temp: 54.7° (+0.7°) Oct Precip: 2.23" (-1.02") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 44.6° (+3.3°) Nov Precip: 4.49" (+2.07") Nov Snow: 11.2" (+9.4") ...1997... (Fall - Super El Nino) Oct Temp: 53.1° (-0.9°) Oct Precip: 2.75" (-0.68") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 36.4° (-4.9°) Nov Precip: 1.46" (-0.96") Nov Snow: 3.3" (Missing Data) (+1.5") ...1991... (Fall - Moderate/Strong El Nino) Oct Temp: 53.2° (-0.8°) Oct Precip: 7.36" (+3.93") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 35.1° (-6.2°) Nov Precip: 3.59" (+1.17") Nov Snow: 1.2" (-0.6") ...1982... (Fall - Strong/Super El Nino) Oct Temp: 53.2° (-0.8°) Oct Precip: 1.88" (-1.55") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 39.1° (-2.2°) Nov Precip: 6.95" (+4.53") Nov Snow: 0.4" (-1.4") ...1972... (Fall - Strong El Nino) Oct Temp: 50.2° (-3.8°) Oct Precip: 3.62" (+0.19") Oct Snow: 0.8" (+0.6") Nov Temp: 37.5° (-3.8°) Nov Precip: 3.18" (+0.76") Nov Snow: 5.5" (+3.7") ...1965... (Fall -Strong El Nino) Oct Temp: 54.0° (0.0) Oct Precip: 1.06" (-2.37") Oct Snow: 0.0" (-0.2") Nov Temp: 42.0° (+0.7°) Nov Precip: 1.10" (-1.32") Nov Snow: 0.0" (-1.8") ...1957... (Fall - Moderate/Strong El Nino) Oct Temp: 52.0° (-2.0°) Oct Precip: 3.15" (-0.28") Oct Snow: 1.9" (+1.7") Nov Temp: 40.2° (-1.1°) Nov Precip: 2.72" (+0.30") Nov Snow: 0.5" (-1.3")

top tier – mid summer level lightning/thunder.

I recently pulled the seasonal stats for Chicago during past strong and super El Niño episodes. Dating back to 1950, there have been seven seasons that have featured an El Niño of strong to super magnitude. To shed a full light on the situation, I pulled stats both met winter (DJF) and the full October–April snowfall season. The clearest signal is snowfall. Every one of the seven strong/super El Niño seasons featured below normal snowfall during both the DJF and October–April periods. In several of those seasons, snowfall was significantly below average. When it comes to precip, it's more of a mixed signal. Both the DJF and October–April periods feature a mix of very wet, near-average and dry seasons. Temps lean warmer, particularly during met winter. DJF temps ranged from slightly below normal to well above normal, with warmer outcomes more common. During the longer span October–April periods there is more variability, with most seasons within +/- 1° of average, while a couple were well above average. ...Chicago Strong/Super El Nino Seasons... October-April Average Temp: 38.4° October-April Average Snowfall: 38.4" October-April Average Precipitation: 18.12" Met Winter (DJF) Average Temperature: 28.2° Met Winter (DJF) Average Snowfall: 29.6" Met Winter (DJF) Average Precipitation: 6.07" ............................................................. 2015-16 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 40.6° (+2.2°) Oct-April Snowfall: 31.2" (-7.2") Oct-April Precip: 19.80" (+1.68") DJF Avg Temp: 31.4° (+3.2°) DJF Snowfall: 16.3" (-13.3") DJF Precip: 6.94" (+0.87") 1997-98 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 39.7° (+1.3°) Oct-April Snowfall: 10.4" (-28.0") Oct-April Precip: 17.93" (-0.19") DJF Avg Temp: 33.2° (+5.0°) DJF Snowfall: 7.1" (-22.5") DJF Precip: 5.87" (-0.20") 1991-92 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.6° (-0.8°) Oct-April Snowfall: 28.4" (-10.0") Oct-April Precip: 19.80" (+1.68") DJF Avg Temp: 30.5° (+2.3°) DJF Snowfall: 14.5" (-15.1") DJF Precip: 3.97" (-2.10") 1982-83 Season (Record Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 38.0° (-0.4°) Oct-April Snowfall: 26.6" (-11.8") Oct-April Precip: 31.36" (+13.24") DJF Avg Temp: 30.9° (+2.7°) DJF Snowfall: 16.0" (-13.6") DJF Precip: 11.28" (+5.21") 1972-73 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.9° (-0.5°) Oct-April Snowfall: 32.9" (-5.5") Oct-April Precip: 24.38" (+6.26") DJF Avg Temp: 28.0° (-0.2°) DJF Snowfall: 20.0" (-9.6") DJF Precip: 7.52" (+1.45") 1965-66 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 38.1° (-0.3°) Oct-April Snowfall: 24.7" (-13.7") Oct-April Precip: 17.19" (-0.93") DJF Avg Temp: 27.5° (-0.7°) DJF Snowfall: 20.9" (-8.7") DJF Precip: 7.32" (+1.25") 1957-58 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.2° (-1.2°) Oct-April Snowfall: 20.0" (-18.4") Oct-April Precip: 11.24" (-6.88") DJF Avg Temp: 26.9° (+1.3°) DJF Snowfall: 16.2" (-13.4") DJF Precip: 3.40" (-2.67")

Overview of the heat wave this past week locally... ...ORD... September 1st: 95°/77° September 2nd: 96°/78°* September 3rd: 91°/77°* September 4th: 93°/76°* *Record tied/broken. ...MDW... August 31st: 91°/72° September 1st: 94°/77° September 2nd: 96°/78° September 3rd: 92°/79° September 4th: 93°/78°

ORD had a low temp of 76° yesterday, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 74°(1971/1960).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 76° on September 4th, which broke the record high minimum temperature for the date of 74°(1971/1960).

Maxed at 93° at both ORD and MDW yesterday. ...2026 90°+ Day Tally... 18 - MDW 17 - RFD 16 - ORD 15 - LOT 14 - PWK 14 - ARR 13 - UGN 12 - DPA

ORD had a low temp of 77° yesterday, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 75° (1973/1953/1898).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 77° on September 3rd, which broke the record high minimum temperature for the date of 75° (1973/1953/1898).

Hit 91° at ORD and 92° at MDW yesterday. ...2026 90°+ Day Tally... 16 - MDW 15 - ORD 15 - RFD 14 - ARR 13 - PWK 13 - LOT 12 - UGN 11 - DPA

ORD had a low temp of 78° yesterday, which tied the record high min temp for the date of 78° (1913).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 78° on September 2nd, which tied the record high minimum temperature for the date of 78° (1913).

Peaked at 96° at ORD and MDW yesterday. ...2026 90°+ Day Tally... 15 - MDW 14 - ORD 14 - RFD 13 - PWK 13 - ARR 12 - UGN 12 - LOT 10 - DPA

toss. the euro is horrid in handling these patterns and those complexes rarely occur.