Cerakoter1984

Lezak's pattern doesn't work in years like this one until it's already almost too late.

There should be some disappearing reappearing of that system over the next few days but it looks to have a shot.

Things continue head in a positive direction as far as the progression vs my analogs. Curiosity has wondering if this evolves into a 1978/2013 type of winter that lays down cold and snow then locks it in place here. I'm anxious to see what the final anomalies look like vs my maps.

I don't mind it. Glad it's cooling down and it's at least some possible rainfall.

Upcoming 15 days of December looking pretty radical. Regardless what modelling is currently showing, there should be a nice southern U.S. storm in there before long. Pattern looks amazing. This pattern is how you get snow AND keep it for a long time if everything works out right.

I think there's a way to combine and use his technique with others to produce longer range and much more accurate mid-range weather forecasts for event timing, precip liklihood etc... Just not sure exactly what that is yet. I agree with your post about when the pattern "starts". My thought is and always has been that a new pattern started between June 25 and July 10 every year but some are just much harder to detect. Every way I tried to sort reasonable and best analogs when I was doing them a few months back still gave me the same map with the SW ridge. Pretty interesting that they arrived at the same idea.

Given what I've seen the past few weeks, interesting events coming up in la la land on the models may actually have some merit to it around the 5th. Give/take a day or 2.

First pattern I've seen begin to repeat or lock on Euro since mid Autumn. Hope it happens.

My comment won't get close to doing it justice but just wanted to say you do great work. That stuff is awesome to me.

What a GFS run that was. Lol

Getting there... If the Euro is too warm and too far West with the cold here, then I think we may have a candidate for a storm of some interest.

I fully expect to see an interesting storm in our area near Thanksgiving.

Yes. Going to be hard to see a late fall pattern better than that. When retrogression begins,.... boom. This winter could be pretty historic. Too many dominoes falling in a row for it not to. Looking forward to writing about a lot of exciting weather this winter. Really haven't had much weather to write about around here in nearly 3 years.

We're heading into a pretty good spot for being November. Hoping for a bit of retrogression after this pattern sets up.

N. Pac configuration and solar mostly. It was a strong La Nina but it fits an overall pattern of years similar to 2010-11, 1988-89 also. There's some huge potential for major pattern amplification and blocking once we get a little way into winter and all throughout the rest of it. That also shares the characteristics of 1917-18.

I believe this year will be 100% different than the last 2. I think that we are in for a pretty wild winter around these parts.

It makes me really happy but also disappointed. 200% more than last year is still below normal. Lol

Gonna throw this map up. I'm still leaning pretty hard towards this.

November looks seriously a lot like early winter from where I'm sitting.

Looks like I would have gotten snow in about two of those really. Talk about winters of being one county away from the fun. Yikes!

Things looking to take off pretty fast over the next few days. Very reminiscent of 2000 and 2013 in my opinion.

I'm looking forward to it. I'm still working and waiting on a few things to happen also before I write my thoughts out. Things are looking good for my area, in my opinion. The next 2 weeks are very critical in the overall long term pattern. Trades burst looks to cool ENSO back down. Something to keep in mind also, +AAM, -QBO, and a climbing PDO all argue for a -AO and a period of at least some cold for a large portion of the US this winter.

I'm going with a slightly harsher scenario (cold) than most. I like 2000-01, 1984-85, 2008-09, and 2010-11. Going to get into research pretty quick and see if i can make an analog map or 2.

Thank you.

Where can I find that chart? That's a neat way to look at the temperatures.