ldub23
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Everything posted by ldub23
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Possible
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Just a thought, but all the storms have been very weak, even laura for a long time. Maybe that is a reason. And if they keep naming things like omar who knows how many names, but right now the avg is 3 ace per storm. Ace isnt being exhausted.
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The real GFS basically shows nothing considering peak is going to be gone soon. Shows yet another struggling storm. It does give more weight to my idea that if there is another major this season it will recurve well east of bermuda. Atlantic still very hostile but i still think sept 20-oct 10 will have a chance of 2 well formed storms at the same time, then the season comes to an end. Even JB isnt tweeting about the atlantic. Wait, JB just tweeted about 2 threats to the US next week. Joe Bastardi 45m Deja Vu all over again? http://Weatherbell.com looking at. 2 features not even x'd that we think could develop over the next 5 days and may impact US next week, Join us on the Raging weatherbull on http://weatherbell.com premium. Unlike Nana and Omar, could impact US
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Can someone post the real GFS?
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Doing a bit more than i expected.
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Nana is running into the problems they have all had. A struggle against shear and dry air. If i was told in june that we would have 15 named storms by sept 02 i would have laughed at anyone saying ace would be under 50. I am quite confident ace will be below avg for the season.
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Might be wise to do so. Compared to 06Z the GFS has went dead. I dont think the super favorable conditions have arrived by sept 10. Very dead for peak. Maybe the hurricane showing para is more active. Euro does show 1 actual storm but unless the euro and GFS agree i tend to discount anything and in any case this storm wont get close to the US.
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Im sure they are basing that on the euro and GFS though if they go dead this aft then it wont be so active. What is the real gfs showing at 12Z? not the para.
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Euro shows a minor low but the 06 GFS does show this
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Gusts. Its peak. Where's the beef??
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This one will be named, 99 doubtful
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Things looking quite dead. I think the average ace per storm is 3 and if 90 gets named that will drop a bit. Tutt coming back with a vengeance(MDR has been dead regardless) pretty much means there is no peak. 5/1/0 rest of season, though who knows how many 1.0 ace storms will get named. If the MJO ever was favorable you wouldnt know it. If there is another major the best chance will be sept 20-oct10 east of bermuda. Once again, SST'S(which got everyone to go overboard on ace) are the least important factor. I also think the season will end rather early, around oct10, with a below avg ace season
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Incorrect. That is the non-operational parallel GFS model that would become the GFS version operational in 202 if there are no hitches. It is still in experimental phase. The current operational GFS is version 15. Still shows lots of storms.
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Weak storm seems likely.
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Dont get too excited. thats the GFS they have that still shows fantasy storms. Maybe in winter it will be set to show lots of blizzards.
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Euro shows nothing, 06GFS NADA. Nothing for peak.
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Not much for peak season with only sporadic model support for any of them. We have yet to have a burst of storm formation where 3 or 4 form in rapid succession without monumental struggles. No evidence of a burst through peak. Atlantic continues to look like a dried up raisin. A typical 2020 storm may form from that thing in the gom as it scoots out to sea but this picture is less than impressive for peak. If this is MJO 2-3 yikes
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Euro and GFS rather dead. Still think a mini burst might occur sept20-oct10 unless we have switched to a winter like pattern by then. its not going to be hyper active with a dried up MDR. JB is claiming we are in the active phase of the MJO. How much nore unfavorable is it in the MDR when its not favorable?
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What is a para gfs? The one that shows storms?
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Perhaps, but i dont think pre-season forecasts of a hyper active season took this in consideration. Mdr totally engulfed in bone dry air. I read the gfs does show a wave finally developing in the Boc but the story of the season, a very hostile MDR continues.
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I dont think they have been terrible. Everything in the MDR has been weak and struggling. 12Z euro shows no organized storms other than laura. So far i think the models have done quite well. The GFS and EURO have shown a dead MDR and thats what we have so far.
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Backed way off of that. Sal isnt backing off though. 12Z gfs shows basically nothing thru peak while euro is showing "vigourous waves". Lets see if the afternoon euro actually shows a well developed storm in the MDR.
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JB says it isnt in a favorable state except for very in close development like ike and hanna did just before landfall. He says we are in phase 8/1 but the favorable phases are coming. 2 days ago but still in the same phase.
