ldub23

18Z GFS appears less enthusiastic Euro even less enthusiastic. Mega super duper low over the northeast and as can be seen here that causes higher than normal pressure over the Sahara. Times up for hints and signs. WHERE'S THE BEEF! http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022080400/slp8.png The JB-o-meter is stuck on Bible verses this AM. No mention of the Atlantic Sahara.

This is 1954 like if it happens. JB-o-meter hasnt mentioned it yet and will need to see it on the Euro as well.

JB brings up 1954. I would take that in a heartbeat right now.

Only if the deal is that everyone who is wrong on anything can never post in the forum they were wrong in. Plus of course there are degrees of "wrong". What if the season ends up 14/7/3? Should everyone who forecasted higher than that vamoose? Also, there is a reason i post this map so often. Its because unless a hurricane can get in this picture i dont consider it "of note". You might say but a cat 4 just ran right over PR before turning out to sea east of Bermuda. In winter no east coast winter snow lover cares if a blizzard blasts Butte Montana or if the CA Sierra gets 200% of normal snow dec-feb while dc has 3.5 inches. If that happened the moaning and groaning in the Mid-Atlantic forum would be monumental and no matter if CA had 400% of normal snow while DC had 3.5 inches it would be considered a total non-winter. 1985 was 11/7/3 i think but it is one of my benchmark seasons. It was a hyperactive season for a reason. Something is wrong this season. Supposedly we are in a la nina and SST's are just fine yet it just cant get going. I personally consider the season at 1/0/0 so far as A and C should not have been named, but thats just me. Notice the dark red over the waters off se canada and the Northeast? Thats supposed to cause a blocking high. So far nothing.

This is from DT's public facebook page. 2 things to take note of. No mention of the tropics or a sideways august. Also look at week 3. Mean trough remains across New England. This pattern has persisted the entire summer. We will never have a Newfoundland wheel or Euro super ridge with the mean trof over New England. I know people are talking about hints and signs. I listened to Suddath talk about how the warm temps in the NW ATL means a ridge will be there. It sure wont be there in 3 weeks. Some storms will form but unless the pattern changes its a non season.

The JB-o-meter just went off. 12Z GFS says, yea the pattern is still horrid. Totally barren in the Sahara, hyperactive in east pac. No wheel, no euro super ridge, no moisture. Aug starts as July ended. Would everyone take 5/2/1 for the rest of the season and be happy?

Im surprised this has gone unmentioned. Its a repeat of 2 days ago but with a cat1 cane hitting texas instead of a cat 4. How it develops is a bit suspicious. Since its starts in 9 days we can see if the euro shows anything today The pattern shown on the euro at 240 with a front up and down the east coast and huge low pressure over the northeast makes me think this likely isnt going to happen. Maybe it will change today.

But this season is acting like an el nino. In fact, we cant even get a cloud to make it across the Atlantic. This picture pretty much sums things up. There is no wheel, there is no euro super ridge, there is no moisture in the Sahara tropics, and waves are developing regularly in the east pac even though they are anemic dried up nothings until they get there. Right now there is yet ANOTHER low blasting off the mid-atlantic coast. This is why i am super uber confident of an early ending season. While its possible a switch will flip and the Wheel will appear i think its more likely as sept 15 nears the trofs will simply be stronger and more potent. My 5 post limit means i need to reply here. I also dont think it remain this quiet. 8/4/2 for the rest of the season but i might bust too high. East Pac says this is el nino baby!!!

"This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin." You would hope they are going to change because they cant get any worse. Its very basic. There is a massive east coast trof displacing high pressure too far south turning the Atlantic into more of the sahara than the sahara is. Until that changes i agree we can ignore 2013, but look carefully at 1983, 1972. And lets take out November because that can be dead even in active seasons. What is the longest time between invests? Should we have a contest on when the next invest will be designated?

0Z was a bit less active. East pac still cranking plus the JB-o-meter didnt go off. In a dead season like 2022 this is much more likely. A weak storm forming from a mid-latitude trof. With the east pac in overdrive we have el nino shear in the west carib and gom so until the east pac acts like a la nina a 938mb cane isnt likely in the GOM This map also shows the overall pattern hasnt changed one iota. No wheel, no euro super ridge just a continuation of the mega east coast trof with dry air flooding the tropics.

Like i was saying, the real Sahara has more moisture. Could CSU go 0/0/0 for the rest of the "season"? Obviously something will develop, most likely a nothing in the far east ATL that quickly either croaks of thirst or bebops north. Time to start thinking about 1983. There wont be an Alicia though, but maybe a weak storm will form in the western GOM. In a season that was as weak as the 2022 season look to the extreme east or west for something to form. Hard to imagine the real Sahara having less of a probablity of a depression to form. We need a contest, "Will there be an invest in Aug"? +

I was most likely saying thank god Clinton is almost gone. As far as the season itself i seem to remember i was a bit optimistic. I cant remember the overall pattern that season but i know right now and at least thru aug 14 the Atlantic Sahara and the real Sahara will be equally dry. Here is a satellite animation of 1999 and it sure appears there was much more moisture in the tropics. *Floyd flooded my house and car Here is the Atlantic Sahara today. It may well be drier than the real sahara.

Good article in SAL. Personally i think this season was dead due to the High being displaced too far south. Euro pretty dead thru Aug. Shows some activity in Sept but that might just be the model thinking something should be happening. 8/3/1 CSU on aug 04. https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/blame-it-on-the-dust?utm_source=email

Might be lucky to have anything on the map on aug 28. Here is what i mean about the super mega east coast trof displacing high pressure too far south resulting in a bone dry Atlantic If you want a cane season this year then pray long and hard the Iron Steel trof of immense magnitude can be broken. High pressure is simply too far south in the Atlantic. 0/0/0 is still a real possibility for Aug. 1983 might seem active compared to this season. Also, with this pattern the East pac will stay active which means el nino like shear in the Atlantic.. Major hurricane? Its going to be hard enough to get an invest. This has been the summer long pattern and patterns like this dont break easily which is also why i am confident of an early ending season. When the pattern does break it will be due to larger intrusions of cool dry canadian air blasting off the east coast later in Sept. And again in the interest of reporting all the news the euro still insists on replacing the mega trof with a mega ridge. Lets hope so

In the interests of presenting all the news, the JB-o-meter has started back up Also for the first time it appears a front makes it thru texas

This certainly isnt going to be a repeat of the hyperactive 1985. US is not at risk. Same pattern no change. Low pressure in the Northeast, mega east coast trof, and yet another East Pac cane. August has gone from sideways to rightside up. I have to save my posts. In reference to the post from cptcatz, Hints?? We were supposed to be having a hyperactive season. Hints in Aug dont cut it. And thats 0Z, 6Z is somewhat less impressive.

JB bringing up the analog of 2003. Is he setting up the European heat for his mega bust forecast. I expect CSU will use 2003 when they drastically cut numbers next week. Isabel managed to get thru and other than that 2003 was a nothing season for the US. Give me an el nino or give me death!! I would argue its dead in Aug because high pressure is displaced too far south making the Atlantic the Sahara. Oh, and the JB-o-meter had a tweet storm today and not a peep about the tropics. I just did some checking. The actual sahara desert has the same amount of tropical activity as the new Atlantic Sahara. Zero.

More people are talking about a 2013 type bust now. It would not surprise me if August is totally barren now. Maybe 1 sheared weak nothing but the 2 places to look when a season is dead are also unfavorable. Its really hard to get a weak storm on an old front off the SE coast when there is a super mega east coast trof. And the subtropics are a bit cool. 0/0/0 in Aug is a real possibility One bit of good news is the SST'S arent exactly the same as now. This is july 29 2013

The big reason why the Atlantic is the Sahara now is due to the low pressure over the NW ATL. Oh, the JB-o-meter has gone totally silent. Not good

The horrid pattern just keeps getting re-inforced. The strongest winterlike trof yet rams off the east coast. No sign of the wheel or the Euros's phantom ridge.

Could this end up being the deadest of dead seasons? Another person joins the bandwagon. Beginning of the season now pushed back to sometime in Sept. Has the cane season began and ended in the same month? I would advise CSU to cut numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats only assuming the season actually keeps going in OCT which seems unlikely. Why were the forecasters so horribly wrong about this season? Please chime in on why they did such a horrible job. If this is what we get in a La Nina please for all thats holy give us a super el nino next season. It cant possibly be any deader than this season was. I think the best idea is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just look at the pattern after the start of the season. I was wondering back in early june where all the hype was coming from when it seemed rather obvious the overall pattern was NOT going to produce a season of note. This season was quite dead. Lets hope next season has a bit of moisture in the tropics. Aug is clearly not going to be sideways. CSU should at least cut their forecast in half. Now we wait to see when JB says he was wrong as well. This might be the most active the Atlantic looks till SEPT 15.

My point would be 1975 and 2000 werent what was advertised by most if not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another 1975 or 2000 then i will feel vindicated im my ideas.

Well, by all means show us some hyperactive maps. MJO, MJO, Where for art thou, MJO? July? The desert goes all the way till the heart of the season. Now it looks like the season wont begin till after sept 08. Is it safe to say that August isnt going to be sideways, unless you are looking at a calendar upside down and August in the Atlantic resembles February. What that map tells me is we will see a few weak nothings try to spin up just off the african coast then die of thirst as they hit the Sahara or waves will come off too far north to mean anything to anyone. Please i hope for an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the last 2 seasons. We can still hang our hatts on the possibilty of a 1 storm season and something managing to find a window of moisture in a sea of sand. I think CSU comes out with an update on Aug 04. Much lower numbers coming. I still think the European heatwave will be seen by forecasters like CSU for the reason the season died.

Euro says the Sahara desert has come to the Atlantic. Is this the look of a hyperactive season?

I dont mind the piling on. If im right like last year i will be crowing. If im wrong and CSU's numbers verify then i will eat the crow. I use this 16 day map because my idea of a hurricane season is a hurricane able to get into the picture and be a threat to the US. Anything else i ignore( like east coast snow lovers ignore blizzards in Alberta)