ldub23

Let me add to that the Euro came in and said, "CMC, YOU MAKE ALOT OF SENSE" That being said 91L is on the struggle bus big time. Here is the 12Z Euro. It would still likely recurve but its alot closer than it was. That is a very interesting pattern the Euro is showing for the east coast. If i were drawing a pattern for an east coast hit it would be quite similar to this.

He may have meant Aug 2023. Some interesting things to think about this hurricane season. We have always been told that warmer than normal SST's in the NW ATL would cause high pressure to lock in there and make the overall pattern favorable for hurricane hits. As usual even with well above normal SST's low pressure locked in. Not only that but now we are being told the above normal SST's are part of the reason for the slow season. Also, it was supposed to be favorable for the subtropics to be cooler than normal but we are now being told thats unfavorable as well. Anyway, still hoping for a 1 storm season. Maybe the euro will come in shortly and say, "i agree with you CMC"

Since when is a TD a named storm? From now its 0/0/0/0? LOL. Even if something gets called a storm i still win compared to others who said august would be sideways, fast and furious watch and CSU'S 20/10/5. Aug would have to be rather active for that to verify. And some on here were rather bullish for Aug. Its all good though im still hoping we can salvage a 1 storm season.

Ive already declared victory. As for the future the hope for a 1 storm season rests with a future storm on the Euro. Basically if it even forms how far west it gets is based on how strong 91L gets.

JB comes to the rescue. No commentary from me except i hope he is right and we still can salvage some kind of season.

Suspiciously dead? Its been that way all season. Im posting this not because of 91L which is very weak on the Euro, not that i care at this point, but to show as i was saying there is squat behind possible Dani. Whenever i hear people talking about how things have suddenly become favorable in the Sahara the first thing i do is look behind whatever is supposed to develop. If the pattern has flipped then we are going to see many lows with good prospects to develop, especially at peak in a season that was supposed to be hyperactive. We dont. There is bone dry air just like all season. I feel sorry for JB because he really wants to have a hurricane season like i do. There is a non tropical low(typical of an ultra dead season) that might be a nothing and go nowhere well east of NJ. Im not counting on an active Sept and im sure not expecting many threats to the US like the experts said. They said we would have a locked in high over the NW ATL. I said we would have a locked in trof in the west ATL. Anyway, here is the 12Z euro with Jack Squat behind 91L. I cant imagine a more pitiful map for peak. This map gives us an idea of the ultra super whopper high pressures in the tropical ATL after 91L http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr And finally i am very much aware the season doesnt supposedly end on 15 sept. But really, did it ever begin? Here we have on the GFS MR WINTER(winter pattern anyway) making a wonderful cool dry appearance. And remember the experts were saying at peak high pressure was going to dominate the west atl and steer things ominously close to the coast. ******And there you are. 11/7/3 next season with a few real storms to track 150% of normal snow from RIC-BOS this winter. ****And there you are.

lol bless your heart. You don't have a major to ravage the coastline. Guess you'll move on to a subforum Winter thread now? Peace out, homeslice! None of us are here for sunny pleasant weather. And i might be mistaken but last time i looked they were praying for a bitter cold and snowy winter in the winter sub-forum. I suppose that kind of death and destruction is ok. Personally, i like snow but not cold.

Miserable way to end the season. If it forms its a recurving nothing so i was quite accurate about the locked in trof instead of preseason forecasts of a ridge. There is nothing behind it as conditions will become increasingly unfavorable. Super typhoon in west pac=zippo atl. We wont even have a 1 storm season. Larry Cosgrove had the best pro forecast 14/7/2 and even that looks too high. Even JB cant bother to talk about it. The JB-O-Meter is at zero right now.. Look at the sky high pressures in the Atlantic tropics after dani bebops. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr And there you are.

Hopefully this will be the 1 storm of the season. Can it survive the next 5 days?

Also far weaker and it has nothing else but very high pressures in the tropics. Its 1009mb at hour 222. I seriously doubt it can even be that "strong" The little thing east of bermuda might end up the strongest storm of the season. Way too dry. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr Everytime i get mocked the tropics shut down. Here is Sept 13 on the GFS. As i suspected a winterlike pattern would set in early giving an early end to the cane season. VERY STRONG LOW AND FRONT. One question though. Can a season end early if it never started? And there you are. JB now agreeing with me about a cooler than normal Sept and Oct but never fear!! There will be a feeding frenzy in the tropics( who cares if there is? It sure as hell aint gonna be near the US) And there you are. ****11/7/3 for 2023 cane season. Much more active with several actual trackable storms. *****My winter prediction is 150% normal snowfall from RIC to BOS. And there you are.

I guess we will find out soon enough if it even survives. If it survives it gets close enough so small changes could mean a hit. One cautionary note as usual. Euro shows nothing in front of it and just a couple of weak lows behind it. Is this the 1 storm for the season or will the dry air choke it out? GFS delaying development yet again. Maybe we should wait to see if it can develop before we worry about where its going. ******GFS much much weaker. Never gets it below 1002 mb then takes the weak nothing low to meet another weak low in a mid-atlantic dance to nowheresville. 0/0/0 Aug still in play and now we have to wonder when a real cane will form. GFS still has the gom cane. And there you are. This isnt the look i would want to see for a disturbance to intensify into a major hurricane. Very chaotic with cloud fragments everywhere. Im thinking Hugo looked a bit better at this position And there you are.

I wish i could take the Euro, but it is delaying development and its quite a bit weaker than 12Z. All in all rather disappointing. If the Euro storm is also a phantom then i think its time to hope and pray the el nino is weak next cane season so we have a cane season. We will see if it can survive.

18Z GFS much weaker with the super cane and far weaker with the other storm, if it ever forms. I think drying up and doing nothing is more likely than a strong recurving cane. Basically its unlikely the GFS supercane will happen and also unlikely the Euro threat to the US will happen. Peak season in a season that was supposed to be hyperactive and we have nothing of interest. At 372 the GFS has delayed once again the development of the Euro supercane and in any case its a nothing bebopping. A very weak low in the central GOM. Very unimpressive. Here is what the Euro says is going to be a US threat and supercane. Its going to be a hard road just to survive

Not at all impressed with the 12Z GFS. Still has what i think is a phantom supercane now back to hitting Mexico. The other storm the Euro agreed with is much weaker and is basically a nothing now bebopping out to sea. The run ends with a couple of weak lows here and there. Overall for the peak of the season that was supposed to be hyperactive there are no threats. If somehow the GFS supercane does form then i will eat 3 whole grain crossaints. The GFS supercane isnt that far off now. Something should be showing up soon thats the reason for it to form. The lead disturbance in the Atlantic may well just dry up. It has that look.

Euro finally shows a possible threat at 240 High in the right place. This would likely be a monster if it gets over water. gfs has something similar but then it develops some odd low that causes the cane to bebop NE. Meanwhile the GFS is alone in forming the supercane once more These are 2 totally different storms. Here is the same storm the euro is showing You can see it in the lower right. If the GFS didnt have the supercane it would likely have the other cane as a real threat. Sadly the gfs also is showing a hyperactive east pac. 06Z has the cane slightly further west. If not for the phantom supercane this would be a real threat as all the models are now developing it.

Naturally i see it a bit differently. I am discounting the Texas cane and the MDR still seems like the sahara. At 276 its little different from this It does show this 16 days from now, but again 16 days from now. Other than a Texas cane i think is unlikely to happen it really isnt showing considering its peak in a season that was supposed to be hyperactive. ***And again i apologize for not replying to people. I realize it makes me appear an even bigger arse than the arse that i am. With 5 posts a day i simply cant reply.

Surprise!! Im not too optimistic on the MDR. Also the hurricane the GFS has hitting Texas seems rather unlikely to me. I still think the best possibility is for a brief storm to form just off the African coast then bebop north. If it suddenly decides to head west its going to have a hell of a time surviving. *** Maybe the upper low NE of the bahamas will become something weak, but it would also bebop.

One consistent thing is everything keeps getting pushed back and back and back and the ridge is gone gone gone. Plenty of dry air in the Sahara And this is with phase2 MJO. Can we sue the MJO for breach of contract? 1 myth i would like to correct. Waves dont sacrifice themselves and "moisten" up the environment for future waves. That can only happen if the amount of dry air in the Sahara is static. When the dry air just keeps being replaced any moisture a wave will bring is literally no more than spitting in the ocean. The dry air being flooded in dwarfs the tiny amount of moisture with a single wave. Its come down now to a 1 storm season. 0/0/0 Aug is becoming more likely. I wouldnt expect that much in Sept. Its as favorable as it can be now and the Sahara is totally dead. As sept rolls in the good MJO is headed out. I guess the good news is how much worse can it get?

Sadly, it appears the 18Z GFS dropped everything east of the islands. Maybe the supercane will form but im always skeptical in a situation like this. But maybe this is our 1 storm season.

At least its not 15 days away in fantasyland. In this case we should see immediately on satellite if its real or not. JB's cat isnt impressed so that might be a bad sign.

I think we are down now to a 1 storm scenario now. Can a storm fight thru the Sahara and somehow find a place to develop and threaten the coast? By the way, as expected the Euro is showing my "Who gives a damn storm". If its accurate it will either bebop or just die. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

I guess we will see if it shows up on the Euro shortly. One bad sign is it doesnt do anything on the GFS until it escapes the tropics. Will it make it all the way across with any gas left to try to develop off the SE? Other than that everything else is once again delayed. If this craps out then 0/0/0 Aug looks golden. Getting from 30 to 70 thru all this hostility will be fun to watch but what the heck, at least for now its a wave with showers. I personally would have waited a few days to call it an invest just to see if it survives. 2 PTC's already couldnt make it. You can see the Cat5 TUTT ne of PR. 2 things will happen. It will vamoose and give 90L a slight chance or it sits right there and knocks the snot out of 90L. If that TUTT is still there in 4 days then development drops to 0/0 Andy isnt terribly optimistic for 90L, and peak season cancel? Euro bows to King TUTT and the bone dry air. Nothing thru 192 from 90L. I think we are being punked about this being MJO phase 2, lol. Yea, Euro shows something weak at 192 but that will likely get pushed back and it still has tha Cat 5 TUTT to get thru. I really think there was no need to call this an invest. Maybe they are just bored. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr I dont think i have ever seen a bigger nothing season than this year. Prospects overall dont look good. For "homebrews" you need several things. A-waves that can hold together and make it to the waters off the SE coast. Not this season B-High pressure locked in the NW ATL. We have low pressure. C-The area just off Africa offers the best chance for something to develop but who cares? I apologize for posting about the entire tropics here but i only have 5 posts. I will be back in the other thread after this. I doubt 90L will be worth posting about. I think the green stuff East of FLA is 90L. On satellite it appears to be rapidly drying up for now.

*Raises hand. I remain very unimpressed. It also looks like the East Pac is going to get active again flooding the Sahara with even more shear. GA is right though, for the first time in a very long time there is a wave in the Sahara with a shower!! Andy brings up a good point. Everything seems to be a "go" and he doesnt even mention the toasty SST'S yet the Sahara remains sitting on the toilet constipated as hell. I have already made that conclusion. NEVER FEAR!!! JB is once again predicting hyperactive. With things so dead slow would 1 TD that quickly dissipates count as hyperactive? Finally i have my preliminary forecast for 2023. I will certainly make revisions but there are some indications the el nino may not be terribly strong so im going with 11/7/3. El nino or not conditions in the Sahara cant be as bad as this season.

yea, and while 12Z has a hurricane its delaying things once more by developing another wave further back in Africa. At this rate it wont be till Oct for the super favorable to get here. As i said before even in the deadest of dead seasons we had waves with showers to track that got across the Atlantic. Lets go for the big records!!! 0/0/0 Sept and no canes. By the way the wave that miraculously develops does so encased in bone dry air. Please, i beg you tropical Gods, give me a shower i can track across the Atlantic. The 2 best quotes of this season will be DT'S post referenced below "August will be Sideways" and JB issuing a "Fast and Furious Watch" 3 weeks ago. Sorry i have to keep adding to my awesomely brilliant posts but i can only grace you with awesomeness 5 times a day In the interest of fairness here is some "good" news.

Everytime i get mocked the tropical Gods respond, lol. Im declaring victory. The season isnt going to be hyper active or even "active". Normal at best at this point. As far as the rest of the season lets hope we can get 6 canes and 2 majors. *Hopefully 06Z will be back to showing a few clumps of clouds at least. Even in dead seasons we used to get waves with showers. Yesterday i was skeptical because right after the twin super canes the models went back to nothing and bone dry air after the 2 canes. *As far as the ensembles go the euro also shows nothing and its now very realistic we go 0/0/0 thru Aug. *****2 important records within reach now. Tying the least active Aug and longest period between named storms. 2 more tidbits of info. A-This was supposed to be a hyperactive season. Also lots of "homebrew" with rapid intensification close to the coast. We have had 2 PTC'S and neither could even form a closed circ. B-As pointed out the 06Z shows another super cane. But look behind it. There is nothing following it, not even a strong wave. At season peak with the conditions apparently favorable enough for a super cane to form nothing else does? This tells me 1 of 2 things. The model is wrong and the initial cane is yet another phantom, or the conditions have changed and at 12Z the model will be decidedly more active.