ldub23

I should have posted this here

Im thinking a little bit higher, 18-22 inches

Its been very persistent

We have had a pattern of lows forming off the SE coast and moving offshore. If this pattern repeats in dec-feb it will be quite snowy especially I-95east

It was lower that that in 76/77 and 77/78

JB has said next season will double this years numbers with an ace well over 200

It does take a NW turn

Euro further west with Idalia part 2

The center of frank appears to be about to zip out of the convection.

Gert and emily should never have been named. Just getting numbers up. Euro has come way down on Frankie. I dont know about 1893 but comparing this garbage to 1995 is beyond a joke

JB is not giving up. He doesnt mention hazel but it formed in the same place

Keep us updated. Good work.

But less fishy than 06Z

JB has spoken. This will be the upcoming winter.

T The GFS came alive

All i see is a weak broad low in the west GOM. No hurricane anywhere thru aug 31.

GFS has a cane in the GOM but it seems highly unlikely that will happen. At 216 is where it begins but what actually will happen is it develops in the east pac. The pattern hasnt changed 1 iota because there is nothing behind it developing. 0/0 Aug thru aug 30 on the GFS now except for an unlikely GOM cane. I think the GFS is confusing the Colombian heat low that is hostile for development for an actual disturbance. Another argument against development is that huge front blasting off the east coast. As i often say if you want to see west carib/gom development you want a locked and loaded high dominating the west ATL. Since its peak and something should be happening i give it a 1% chance. Only a 99% chance it doesnt develop

read fast

First hint the GFS might be starting the season For the first time it shows something developing behind the cane hitting TX which could indicate a pattern change But then it shows a second low forming in the west gom

You didnt mention it was on its way to cat5. Im skeptical though because there is nothing behind it which says the pattern hasnt changed. It will be really hard to get a hurricane in the GOM anytime soon with the East pac on fire like this.