ldub23

The pattern will have to change to a locked in high over the NW ATL to see development of interest in the SW ATL. JB must have seen the weeklies as he is saying the east coast will face threats in mid to late Aug. Luckily the GFS is much weaker this AM with the recurver.

What is your wildest swing in weather? Feb 1989 comes to mind in SE VA. 80 degrees on the 15th, 13.6 inches of snow on the 18th, 76 degrees on the 21st and 8.6 inches of snow on the 24th Sum 1462 981 - - 601 9 5.80 24.4 - Average 52.2 35.0 43.6 -0.6 - - - - 1.2 Normal 53.4 35.1 44.2 - 582 1 2.90 1.5 - 1989-02-01 72 46 59.0 16.7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-02 80 52 66.0 23.6 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-03 81 41 61.0 18.5 4 0 0.11 0.0 0 1989-02-04 41 33 37.0 -5.6 28 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-05 38 34 36.0 -6.7 29 0 0.64 0.0 0 1989-02-06 45 37 41.0 -1.8 24 0 0.18 0.0 0 1989-02-07 45 35 40.0 -3.0 25 0 0.12 0.0 0 1989-02-08 43 36 39.5 -3.6 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-09 37 20 28.5 -14.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-10 40 19 29.5 -13.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-11 53 26 39.5 -4.0 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-12 55 30 42.5 -1.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-13 57 34 45.5 1.6 19 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-14 77 56 66.5 22.5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-15 80 62 71.0 26.8 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-16 67 41 54.0 9.6 11 0 T 0.0 0 1989-02-17 43 30 36.5 -8.1 28 0 0.15 1.2 0 1989-02-18 35 29 32.0 -12.7 33 0 1.33 13.6 7 1989-02-19 38 26 32.0 -12.9 33 0 0.18 0.6 9 1989-02-20 50 24 37.0 -8.1 28 0 0.04 0.0 4 1989-02-21 76 44 60.0 14.7 5 0 0.49 0.0 0 1989-02-22 60 43 51.5 6.0 13 0 0.21 0.0 0 1989-02-23 43 36 39.5 -6.2 25 0 0.16 0.4 0 1989-02-24 36 26 31.0 -14.9 34 0 1.03 8.6 3 1989-02-25 36 21 28.5 -17.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 7 1989-02-26 50 29 39.5 -6.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 3 1989-02-27 44 36 40.0 -6.5 25 0 0.41 T 0 1989-02-28 40 35 37.5 -9.2 27 0 0.71 0.0 0 Observations for each day cover the 24 hours ending at the time given below (Local Standard Time). Max Temperature : midnight Min Temperature : midnight Precipitation : midnight Snowfall : unknown Snow Depth : unknown

My forecast method is a simple one. Since it is now forecast to recurve east of bermuda and amount to nothing development is a lock.

81% certain the east atl dist will develop into a cane

Probably wont see a month like that again soon with an avg low of 17 degrees here Sum 1170 527 - - 1160 0 3.29 12.1 - Average 37.7 17.0 27.4 -12.4 - - - - 0.4 Normal 49.1 30.6 39.8 - 780 0 3.77 1.7 - 1977-01-01 34 15 24.5 -16.1 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-02 37 15 26.0 -14.5 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-03 35 19 27.0 -13.4 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-04 40 28 34.0 -6.3 31 0 0.01 0.0 0 1977-01-05 38 24 31.0 -9.2 34 0 0.18 2.8 3 1977-01-06 36 17 26.5 -13.6 38 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-07 40 28 34.0 -6.0 31 0 0.57 5.8 2 1977-01-08 45 14 29.5 -10.5 35 0 0.00 0.0 2 1977-01-09 39 17 28.0 -11.9 37 0 T 0.0 T 1977-01-10 48 19 33.5 -6.3 31 0 1.24 0.5 T 1977-01-11 38 17 27.5 -12.3 37 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-12 36 10 23.0 -16.7 42 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-13 31 12 21.5 -18.2 43 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-14 33 20 26.5 -13.1 38 0 0.46 0.0 T 1977-01-15 39 30 34.5 -5.1 30 0 0.49 0.0 T 1977-01-16 32 25 28.5 -11.1 36 0 0.11 1.5 2 1977-01-17 26 0 13.0 -26.6 52 0 0.00 0.0 1 1977-01-18 26 6 16.0 -23.5 49 0 0.00 0.0 1 1977-01-19 31 1 16.0 -23.5 49 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-20 37 11 24.0 -15.5 41 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-21 35 12 23.5 -16.1 41 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-22 32 14 23.0 -16.6 42 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-23 34 10 22.0 -17.6 43 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-24 38 20 29.0 -10.6 36 0 0.16 1.5 2 1977-01-25 40 24 32.0 -7.7 33 0 0.07 0.0 T 1977-01-26 41 20 30.5 -9.2 34 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-27 49 31 40.0 0.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-28 55 30 42.5 2.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-29 55 11 33.0 -6.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-30 35 6 20.5 -19.5 44 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-31 35 21 28.0 -12.0 37 0 0.00 0.0 T Reliable observation times are not available prior to 1982.

JB says it again, brings up 1954 and we all know how that year was for the east coast. In other tweets he remains confident of east coast threats. Im pretty sure he meant to type 3 or more days of 90+

The pattern does appear to be changing. Hopefully it lasts thru OCT.

If it does develop it will correspond to a brief change in the pattern with the rain stopping for a few days.

TWC updated their numbers to 10/5. Rather bullish. Its LC vs the world.

Sounds about right

That reminds me of the time back in the nineties the high temperature was 10 degrees here one day.

No heat this winter

The season needs to get started real soon because peak season is going to be rocked with very unfavorable conditions. CSU says 9/4 and right now we are 0/0. One year we will have high pressure locked over the NW ATL and there wont be an east coast mega trof.

And gone

The gfs cane is almost certainly a phantom. This isnt a pattern that favors anything other than slop in the west carib. LC nailed it last year and will be right this year. 5/1 seems about right though he hinted at lowering his numbers. For anything interesting to form in the west carib in late sept/oct you need a strong high centered over the NW ATL. I think given the current pattern of front after front blasting the NE that is highly unlikely. If there is a season it will be a 1 storm season. Yea, i can already read the replies about having 4 storms already. Where they formed and where they died says dead season to me. Euro at 240

We had 1 double whammy here i can remember. Must have been 66 or 67. First storm we got 12-14 inches with thundersnow. A week later we got storm 2. Inbetween it was bitter cold. Storm 2 started with heavy snow, turned to heavy sleet, then back to snow. School was out 2 weeks.

JB says it!

Same here. Back in 76 sept and oct were cold with early frosts and freezes. Nove and dec warmed up some but around Christmas the true Arctic front came in. Looked like a summer squall line. Got a dusting of snow with the front and then another 2 inches an hour later with a super heavy squall. That was all the snow we got here that winter but it lasted in the shade until the thaw came in mid Feb.

It doesnt have to be a big whopping snow, just something that sticks out as odd or unusual. I have 3 1-Many years ago i was out in the back yard taking out the trash. It was 33 and misty/foggy out. No mention of snow in the forecast as far as i can remember. Anyway, all of a sudden these huge glops of snow started to come down. They were so large you could hear them hit the ground. Lasted about 20 minutes. 2-The forecast was for rain possibly mixed with snow with no accumulations. Was in 1st period in HS and looking out the window and the rain kept getting whiter. Soon enough it was heavy wet snow and we were let out right away. Ended up with a foot. 3-A Noreaster went by and after it the wind stayed nne with low clouds and temps falling into the low 20's. It looked like a thick fog but these tiny individual ice needles were falling. It lasted all day and they were so small they only accumulated in corners where the wind blew them 2 or 3 inches deep. Never seen anything like it since.

Another 1 storm season seems most likely.

But again, SST'S are the least important factor and mean absolutely nothing with hostile upper levels.

The overall pattern will have to reverse for that to matter.

Things need to get started soon

Tell that to the almost non stop rain.

Spot on. CSU may have been the ones visiting the WH. Increasing numbers made no sense. He is going 5/1 and im going 4/1. The east coast trof shows no sign of going anywhere. SST'S mean nothing with everything else totally hostile.