ldub23

Never good when in January threads are being started about rain

The se ridge wont go away

30 mile NW trend please

Amazing cold dump in the west with no way for it to come east. We will end with a ridge and warm rain. 12Z is far worse than even the 6z which was bad enough. This is 1977 in reverse. hot in the east brutal cold in the west.

Latest gfs ends with an SER and once again the cold can never get here. low after low cutting to the west.

I was a kid and remember it well. Friday afternoon they were predicting snow flurries for sat, then sat morning they were saying 1-2 inches. At the height of the storm it was 16 degrees with 40+wind gusts and heavy snow. It snowed all day sunday and the temp warmed to 27. They said 13 inches but it had to be at least 20. Right after we had a big warm up and it was gone in a few days except there were still small snow piles on apr 02 in parking lots. Im using Norfolk obs. Here is the wildest 10 days of weather ever here. On the 15th of feb it got to 80 degrees. On the 18th we had 13.6 of snow. On the 21st it got to 76 degrees. On the 24th we had 8.6 inches of snow. Nothing like it since. Sum 1462 981 - - 601 9 5.80 24.4 - Average 52.2 35.0 43.6 -0.6 - - - - 1.2 Normal 53.4 35.1 44.2 - 582 1 2.90 1.5 - 1989-02-01 72 46 59.0 16.7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-02 80 52 66.0 23.6 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-03 81 41 61.0 18.5 4 0 0.11 0.0 0 1989-02-04 41 33 37.0 -5.6 28 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-05 38 34 36.0 -6.7 29 0 0.64 0.0 0 1989-02-06 45 37 41.0 -1.8 24 0 0.18 0.0 0 1989-02-07 45 35 40.0 -3.0 25 0 0.12 0.0 0 1989-02-08 43 36 39.5 -3.6 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-09 37 20 28.5 -14.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-10 40 19 29.5 -13.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-11 53 26 39.5 -4.0 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-12 55 30 42.5 -1.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-13 57 34 45.5 1.6 19 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-14 77 56 66.5 22.5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-15 80 62 71.0 26.8 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-16 67 41 54.0 9.6 11 0 T 0.0 0 1989-02-17 43 30 36.5 -8.1 28 0 0.15 1.2 0 1989-02-18 35 29 32.0 -12.7 33 0 1.33 13.6 7 1989-02-19 38 26 32.0 -12.9 33 0 0.18 0.6 9 1989-02-20 50 24 37.0 -8.1 28 0 0.04 0.0 4 1989-02-21 76 44 60.0 14.7 5 0 0.49 0.0 0 1989-02-22 60 43 51.5 6.0 13 0 0.21 0.0 0 1989-02-23 43 36 39.5 -6.2 25 0 0.16 0.4 0 1989-02-24 36 26 31.0 -14.9 34 0 1.03 8.6 3 1989-02-25 36 21 28.5 -17.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 7 1989-02-26 50 29 39.5 -6.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 3 1989-02-27 44 36 40.0 -6.5 25 0 0.41 T 0 1989-02-28 40 35 37.5 -9.2 27 0 0.71 0.0 0

Thanks, if only that would happen again better than nothing

This is a good look. Its dry but cold. Cant have winter storms without this.

Hopefully it changes on the 20th but on the GFS the cold just can never get here. At least we cant have a january thaw this year. To have a thaw you have to be frozen first.

Thats all nice but here we are jan 18 and its seasonally cool with no sign of arctic air taking over for weeks at a time. At some point its going to have to turn cold and stay cold. The euro 360 map doesnt match up with this. And between now and then we will have 2 storms cutting well west of the mountains and we will be talking about severe weather instead of cold Cutter num 2

The perfect pattern will show up in late March and last thru October.

The problem with this storm was no cold air. Seasonal isnt good enough here. Here is 1 day after the storm and there is zero cold air behind it. I know the models show cold air coming but it never seems to get here.

Yea, just no cold air anywhere.

Even with this low it never really gets cold after it leaves. I think SEVA is out of the game this winter. Hopefully a storm will have the R/S line east of RIC in JAN/FEB. 2 days later on jan 10 and its in the 60's. Just no cold air JB posted this about the brutal january pattern. Reminds me of the time texas got brutal cold and it never came east.

Hopefully it will trend better for central va,

High to the north is gone on the ICON. All rain.

Could be big for central va. high 10 mb stronger to the north and low more east Looking good Looks like i will be on the line on the ICON R/S line right over my house lol. Based on the ICON i might get 7 or 0

in 2025 lol. I do hope RVA gets lucky on the 7th.

At least the ICON is close to somethng

The panic would be less if someone could shut the nozzle on the pacific firehose.

There is an easy way to solve the no snow and cold panic and ensure we get snow and cold. Instead of calling the period of dec-feb winter, call it hurricane season. That way we will fool the weather and it will place a deep trof along the east coast thinking it really is hurricane season. Problem solved. We all know whats going to happen. Eventually we will get a perfect pattern for winter, during spring and summer.

No need for panic at all

I still think we will get >1 this winter just by accident

At Norfolk so far this December is 5 degrees warmer than last december. Dec 2022 was -2.1 and so far this december we are +3.0. I didnt think it could possibly warmer this winter than last. I was wrong, lol