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nesussxwx

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Everything posted by nesussxwx

  1. nesussxwx
    That looks worse for CNJ/Philly. More mixing
  2. nesussxwx
    HRRR initialized a bit too cold for the DC area. would be careful using it. got burned in March '17 using it till the last minute
  3. nesussxwx
    some heavier returns should be moving into the KPIT metro within the next hour it looks like
  4. nesussxwx
  5. nesussxwx
    You and Josh are ween-ing all over the place tonight. You are following an unreliable model which is rarely ever considered in the meteorology world, it's simply looked at. The upper-levels don't mean as much because the cyclone is steered by the mid-levels. However, so far on the 0z NAM, and 0z HRRR we can see there's been somewhat of a de-amplification with lower heights and that could be because of the recon data coming in. If that trend continues we'll see ticks SE. So that's where the upper-levels can have some significance. The mesos are better at picking up short-term mid-level amplification and so far the RGEM, and 3k NAM see an amplification in the mid-level forcing which is steering the cyclone further north, that should not be ignored. I still believe mixing is somewhat likely from Philly into the City.
  6. nesussxwx
    Precipitation will begin to fall in DC by 10:30 AM, 4 PM by NYC most likely. If the GFS was anywhere near correct as to what it showed yesterday we'd know by now, less than 24 hours till the onset.
  7. nesussxwx
    Nice to look at but usually aren't reliable. I think the guy who posted it thinks it's a supreme model.
  8. nesussxwx
    GFS has been a train wreck, had zilch in Albany yesterday, 2" in KPOU. Caved in pretty well to the consensus.
  9. nesussxwx
    Better ratios out there. Let's see how much KPIT ends up with in the end
  10. nesussxwx
    still a little fishy to me all that sleet would blow right past philly and not reach the city/metro area
  11. nesussxwx
    getting close to go-time. i expect precipitation to begin falling in DC by around 10-10:30 AM. JP will be somewhere in between State College - Harrisburg - Poconos. Might be a last minute nowcast.
  12. nesussxwx
    0z HRRR is 8-10" for KPIT
  13. nesussxwx
    0z HRRR looks like 3-5" of sleet/snow b4 rain for DC proper based on my untrained eye. sharp cutoff to the SE
  14. nesussxwx
    If the sleet line blows right through philly and into allentown I'll start getting a lil worried, but if it takes it's time then won't be concerned.
  15. nesussxwx
    Can't see any model making that big of a jump to the point where KPIT sees nothing. There's been a ton of sampled data so far.
  16. nesussxwx
    Please stop embarrassing the NYC thread in here. No reason to be in here unless you are browsing/skimming events happening in the NE region. Just my 2 cents. Best of luck to the NE crew hopefully we all cash in.
  17. nesussxwx
    You only see it that way because you are wish casting I can tell based on your posts in the NE forum. It is a real possibility depending on how much the mid-levels amplify, could be a last minute trend.
  18. nesussxwx
    State College bullseye is looking more and more realistic imo.
  19. nesussxwx
    these things always like to come in early and leave early
  20. nesussxwx
    HI-RES models are seeing a latter-minute amplification trend with stronger mid-level forcing which is pushing the cyclone further north. The mesoscale models would definitely be better at sniffing this out so I wouldn't ignore them, however it is still a bit early for the mesoscale models, later tonight will be more telling. Globals would struggle to pick up that kind of trend.
  21. nesussxwx
    the ens just follows the OP. yesterday it showed nothing for ALB
  22. nesussxwx
    reminds me of '17. kept shifting NW till the last second. still managed 18" but was predicted 24-30"
  23. nesussxwx
    Back for another one, lets hope the NW trend stops now otherwise we'll be dryslotted with horrible snow growth after a nice thump.
  24. nesussxwx
    very quick storm imo. winds started around 10 tapered off by 1:40 west of the city. luckily this limited the extent of the damage could have been way worse.
  25. nesussxwx
    very calm right now in union about 10-15 miles west of the city
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