LibertyBell

Don, do you think such a dual low structure may cause the further offshore low to rob the inner low of moisture and we may dry slot after a few hours of heavy rain?

The low is going to move across western LI, Don? I thought the center was going to pass east of us, between Boston and Cape Cod? Do you have a precip tally for JFK? I think it's even less than Islip.

I was going to ask, do you think the contrast between the Gulf Stream and our own offshore waters will cause the highest winds just offshore? It reminds me of a weaker version of the March 2010 noreaster that gave us hurricane force gusts on the south shore while the winds were much weaker on the north shore.

Will most of the heavy rain be occurring during the late night hours?

Both were colder than KFOK!

This would be a perfect track for a snowstorm in the winter. This is a good practice storm

Yep, I was a little dubious of those hurricane force gusts around Riverhead too lol. Cut that back by 1/3 and you still get 40 mph for around here and 60 mph for the Twin Forks- more reasonable. Still hurricane force gusts for a place like Block Island.

Chris, are those winds at the surface? Wow! Even back here and just offshore, winds around 60 mph

I've always tried to remember this in 5 degree increments, so.... 37 F (light frost) 32 F (freeze) 27 F (hard freeze) Weird thing is, precip seems to follow a similar pattern- over the years I've noticed that mixed precip falls at around 36-37 (or a very wet snow), 32 is for standard snow, but to get the lovely powdery stuff with the high ratios you need temps of around 27-28 or lower. I wonder if this is because there is an average increase of 5 degrees for every 1,000 feet that precip falls (as long as there isn't an inversion.)

Thanks! So a hard free is <28 but no time frame attached to it?

If we could get a system like this in the winter.....

lol yeah, I think it's in the NWS definitions somewhere too- and it has to last for 4 hours I think?

Depends on how long those temps last. I saw a low of 28 a few weeks ago in the Poconos and yet there was no damage. I think for a widespread killing frost you need temps of 27 or lower for 4 straight hours.

Thanks Don, I suspect that the last 80 is the threshold for when true fall weather begins, because at all of our local airports we've seen 70 degrees even during the middle of winter (Jan/Feb)? Likewise the first 80 of the year is the threshold for true spring.

We talked about why it might happen last year. I remember Chris said when you have cold/snowy weather prior to winter, the atmosphere needs some time to recover to get back to that pattern and that might result in a milder December, and then you're already getting the winter started off on the wrong foot, and etc. A milder start means less snow albedo feedback from up north and milder and less snow, which is a more stable pattern than a colder/snowy pattern is. Thats why winters like 2014-15 are extremely rare.

I think we have a few decades left. Maybe by the time it stops snowing around here, we'll be too old to actually see snow (or our eyes will be so bad that we'll see snow everywhere lol.)

Also, the Januarys back in the 80s were much colder. DC/Balt also had much more snow back then and far more suppressed storms than we have now.

it was actually the opposite of 2002-03 in terms of pac/atl, but results were similar. Main difference being the 2002-03 winter lasted a lot longer.

Yes, the predictions didn't change until the Boxing Day storm happened; our fortunes for the entire winter changed with the GFS! We had some near misses before that.

Chris, what was the latest 80 degree day at JFK?

I remember the marathon the day before was so hot people were passing out. And not just the runners! 80 at NYC on the 15th, the day before was 72.

Wow that's quite a gaping hole right in the middle! 30-36" would be eminently doable even with just one huge storm and a handful of minor 1-3" events. A backloaded winter could do that. That would probably be the ceiling for what's likely and I'd put that in second place. Perhaps more likely would be a snowfall total in the teens with no major (12+) totals and perhaps one 6" storm- that would be most likely. Getting something along the lines of 2001-02 or 2011-12 would be less likely, but still a distinct possibility. I'd put that in third place.

oh, I mentioned that in my prior post. It was worse for us on Long Island, we only got around 2 feet of the snow because the big totals with the Feb storm happened to our west. My instincts tell me we're likely in for somewhere between the 20"-30" range you mentioned as the most likely possibility, though there's a chance for breaking 30" if we get that one big storm.

2010-11 is such a massive outlier and I suspect that's because it came after a big el nino (2009-10). What was the other case with 40" or more, Don?

I see either that happening or a winter that's mostly like that but with one big snowfall somewhere in the middle (likely February.) But that usually happens in a strong el nino, which we dont have (an exception is 05-06). There's also a possibility of the elusive backloaded winter that gets us to around average snowfall to maybe slightly above average (around 30").