LibertyBell

Looks like new england bore the brunt of this one.

The time of that gust is interesting- between 11 PM and Midnight. It was around that time that I had my (short) power outage. Based on that graph, it looks like they had two 70+ mph gusts between 11 and Midnight? My pressure bottomed out at 985 mb around 10:40 PM, a bit after 11 the winds really started to pick up and then the outage came.

Was the Breezy Point 76 mph gust at sea level, Chris? Also, does that Valley Stream rainfall total seem low to you? What was the total at JFK?

Here's the report card for 2018 https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2018/ArtMID/7878/ArticleID/790/Clarity-and-Clouds-Progress-in-Understanding-Arctic-Influences-on-Mid-latitude-Weather When will the one for 2019 be issued?

Has the Low started weakening? The lowest pressure I could find was 972 mb at Concord NH at 8 am..... was that the lowest seen anywhere for this storm? Wind reports included 90 mph on the Cape, 83 mph at Stony Brook and 76 mph at Breezy Point. That was some breeze lol. I had a brief power outage here just after 11 PM last night. Lowest pressure here was 985 mb at 10:40 PM

Thanks- their lowest of the season?

Wow, this sounds pretty rare- I dont remember something like this happening before. Has it? In every case I remember the offshore low takes over.

Chris, is that 972 low the primary or secondary low? Looks like the primary low to me, with a secondary developing further offshore.

Looks like 2-4 inches of rain and 40 mph gusts? 60 mph in Suffolk County.

Don, do you think such a dual low structure may cause the further offshore low to rob the inner low of moisture and we may dry slot after a few hours of heavy rain?

The low is going to move across western LI, Don? I thought the center was going to pass east of us, between Boston and Cape Cod? Do you have a precip tally for JFK? I think it's even less than Islip.

I was going to ask, do you think the contrast between the Gulf Stream and our own offshore waters will cause the highest winds just offshore? It reminds me of a weaker version of the March 2010 noreaster that gave us hurricane force gusts on the south shore while the winds were much weaker on the north shore.

Will most of the heavy rain be occurring during the late night hours?

Both were colder than KFOK!

This would be a perfect track for a snowstorm in the winter. This is a good practice storm

Yep, I was a little dubious of those hurricane force gusts around Riverhead too lol. Cut that back by 1/3 and you still get 40 mph for around here and 60 mph for the Twin Forks- more reasonable. Still hurricane force gusts for a place like Block Island.

Chris, are those winds at the surface? Wow! Even back here and just offshore, winds around 60 mph

I've always tried to remember this in 5 degree increments, so.... 37 F (light frost) 32 F (freeze) 27 F (hard freeze) Weird thing is, precip seems to follow a similar pattern- over the years I've noticed that mixed precip falls at around 36-37 (or a very wet snow), 32 is for standard snow, but to get the lovely powdery stuff with the high ratios you need temps of around 27-28 or lower. I wonder if this is because there is an average increase of 5 degrees for every 1,000 feet that precip falls (as long as there isn't an inversion.)

Thanks! So a hard free is <28 but no time frame attached to it?

If we could get a system like this in the winter.....

lol yeah, I think it's in the NWS definitions somewhere too- and it has to last for 4 hours I think?

Depends on how long those temps last. I saw a low of 28 a few weeks ago in the Poconos and yet there was no damage. I think for a widespread killing frost you need temps of 27 or lower for 4 straight hours.

Thanks Don, I suspect that the last 80 is the threshold for when true fall weather begins, because at all of our local airports we've seen 70 degrees even during the middle of winter (Jan/Feb)? Likewise the first 80 of the year is the threshold for true spring.

We talked about why it might happen last year. I remember Chris said when you have cold/snowy weather prior to winter, the atmosphere needs some time to recover to get back to that pattern and that might result in a milder December, and then you're already getting the winter started off on the wrong foot, and etc. A milder start means less snow albedo feedback from up north and milder and less snow, which is a more stable pattern than a colder/snowy pattern is. Thats why winters like 2014-15 are extremely rare.

I think we have a few decades left. Maybe by the time it stops snowing around here, we'll be too old to actually see snow (or our eyes will be so bad that we'll see snow everywhere lol.)