LibertyBell

This is record warmth for a non el nino year!

Did you shut off the space heater? I'm keeping one on in my bedroom until it gets really cold and then I turn on the heat in the whole house. I set the space heater to 80 degrees.

Didnt we have a severe weather event in January 1996 with temps in the upper 60s? I remember that as well as a big supermarket roof collapse in Massapequa a week after the big blizzard.

40/40 is doable though like 15-16 but not having that big el nino is going to present a problem for us.

I hope for a 40/40 season. If it's going to be a mild winter, might as well be mild with snow!

We're thinking along the same lines. The snow in December will probably be mostly for inland areas and we'll get some form of backloaded winter in February and March. I say some form, because it could all be mostly from one storm. Probably more like 05-06 than 15-16, because 15-16 was a big el nino. Unfortunately for me, because the big el nino snowstorms like 82-83 and 15-16 favor the south shore of Long Island for the most snow. So it probably wont be a regionwide 20"+ snowstorm like what those seasons had.

Lorenzo became the furthest east Cat 5 ever in the recorded history of the Atlantic Basin.

I have long thought that nature has a kill-switch; whenever a single species becomes too dominant, a tipping point is reached and nature pulls the switch in favor of biodiversity and against single species dominance. The whole planet is self-regulating.

Thanks! I found this embedded in the same thread: https://ggweather.com/enso/ca_elnino.htm Per SF data, the last Strong La Nina, 2010-2011, had more rainfall (28.87") than the last Strong El Nino, 2015-2016. (23.26") Maybe this new metric can help improve our forecasts during both El Nino and La Nina winters?

what I've seen is some say that weak el ninos may not be as snowy anymore, and we might have to hope for moderate or even strong el ninos to still get that kind of pattern (perhaps the busts from last year had something to do with that.)

Well it looks like until the high temp is less than 55, the heat wont be on during the day, but the heat has to be on at night at 62 degrees, regardless of overnight temps? Back when I lived there, it had to be in the 30s at night for the heat to be turned on

Wow they changed the rules since I lived in Brooklyn back in the 80s. Back then it used to be that, beginning October 1, either the high had to be below 55 or the low had to be below 40, and if it didn't happen by the end of October, then it was mandatory to turn the heat on by November 1 regardless of temps.

Get a space heater. Heat will most likely be on by November 1

Probably not as warm as December 2015 because that was a big el nino, but maybe more like the "normal mild" Decembers we've been getting lately.

That actually looks like the backloaded winter I was thinking about, sort of like 2015-16, even though that was an el nino. Maybe more like 2005-06 if you consider ENSO. I liked 2015-16 a lot more than 2005-06. I took a glance at them and January and March look okay on the UKMET

Thanks, I expect they will update this report too then: https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2018/ArtMID/7878/ArticleID/783/Surface-Air-Temperature

Looks like new england bore the brunt of this one.

The time of that gust is interesting- between 11 PM and Midnight. It was around that time that I had my (short) power outage. Based on that graph, it looks like they had two 70+ mph gusts between 11 and Midnight? My pressure bottomed out at 985 mb around 10:40 PM, a bit after 11 the winds really started to pick up and then the outage came.

Was the Breezy Point 76 mph gust at sea level, Chris? Also, does that Valley Stream rainfall total seem low to you? What was the total at JFK?

Here's the report card for 2018 https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2018/ArtMID/7878/ArticleID/790/Clarity-and-Clouds-Progress-in-Understanding-Arctic-Influences-on-Mid-latitude-Weather When will the one for 2019 be issued?

Has the Low started weakening? The lowest pressure I could find was 972 mb at Concord NH at 8 am..... was that the lowest seen anywhere for this storm? Wind reports included 90 mph on the Cape, 83 mph at Stony Brook and 76 mph at Breezy Point. That was some breeze lol. I had a brief power outage here just after 11 PM last night. Lowest pressure here was 985 mb at 10:40 PM

Thanks- their lowest of the season?

Wow, this sounds pretty rare- I dont remember something like this happening before. Has it? In every case I remember the offshore low takes over.

Chris, is that 972 low the primary or secondary low? Looks like the primary low to me, with a secondary developing further offshore.

Looks like 2-4 inches of rain and 40 mph gusts? 60 mph in Suffolk County.