LibertyBell

That looks like stale cold air to me. Nothing like the departures they are getting out west. Better question might be when will the city get its first freeze?

Damn, if that storm had tracked a bit further east we all would have been buried!

I have a little guide I use to indicate what the highest temps to expect are each month: October 80s November 70s December 60s January 50s February 60s March 70s April 80s May-September 90s plus It works out more often than not. I consider the first 80 the beginning of the warm season and the last 80 the end of it. I dont think we have 4 seasons anymore- we have a warm season and a cold season.

I'd like to see a 70 high on Friday just to say we had a high temp of 70 in November

Why do they do that when they know it's a lower score model? I'd say they're too cheap to pay for the Euro, but considering that the Euro's info is released on many sites, why bother even using the GFS- for anything?

I saw that the area is seeing a string of record low maximums- some have highs in the single digits? Thats crazy for late October, even out there!

Unfortunately there are "scientists" who do this; I was researching cosmic rays and mass extinction events and found that there is a scientist who actually says cosmic rays are the main cause of current climate change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray#Postulated_role_in_climate_change A role for cosmic rays in climate was suggested by Edward P. Ney in 1959[100] and by Robert E. Dickinson in 1975.[101] It has been postulated that cosmic rays may have been responsible for major climatic change and mass-extinction in the past. According to Adrian Mellott and Mikhail Medvedev, 62-million-year cycles in biological marine populations correlate with the motion of the Earth relative to the galactic plane and increases in exposure to cosmic rays.[102] The researchers suggest that this and gamma ray bombardments deriving from local supernovae could have affected cancer and mutation rates, and might be linked to decisive alterations in the Earth's climate, and to the mass-extinctions of the Ordovician.[103][104] Danish physicist Henrik Svensmark has controversially argued that because solar variation modulates the cosmic ray flux on Earth, they would consequently affect the rate of cloud formation and hence be an indirect cause of global warming.[105][106] Svensmark is one of several scientists outspokenly opposed to the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming, leading to concerns that the proposition that cosmic rays are connected to global warming could be ideologically biased rather than scientifically based.[107] Other scientists have vigorously criticized Svensmark for sloppy and inconsistent work: one example is adjustment of cloud data that understates error in lower cloud data, but not in high cloud data;[108] another example is "incorrect handling of the physical data" resulting in graphs that do not show the correlations they claim to show.[109] Despite Svensmark's assertions, galactic cosmic rays have shown no statistically significant influence on changes in cloud cover,[110] and demonstrated to have no causal relationship to changes in global temperature.[111] Unfortunately this denialism shouts down the very real possibility that a supernova explosion induced cosmic ray barrage caused a relatively recent mass extinction event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray#Possible_mass_extinction_factor A handful of studies conclude that a nearby supernova or series of supernovas caused the Pliocene marine megafauna extinction event by substantially increasing radiation levels to hazardous amounts for large seafaring animals

Thought I should post this update, especially with the recent historic forest fires all over California and now in Los Angeles! https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1188160398320656385 The climate science is settled on direct causal links to California wildfires. Whether it is drier droughts, or whiplashes to wetness, the jet stream is acting freakishly. The fingerprints of climate change are all over this current event. https://t.co/avouF71zBo?amp=1 https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/Scientists-see-fingerprints-of-climate-change-all-13128585.php

I am sick and tired of excuses being made for these "developing nations" Time to punish them financially for relying on outdated, polluting technology. Also, oil and nat gas are contributing factors, especially with the fracking "boom" contributing to methane leaks. Nuclear would be a far better option.

Record strong Santa Ana winds out west and expansive forest fires throughout California!

we had snow on the ground here in SW Nassau (1-2") too with temps near freezing in the middle of the day. But nothing like what areas just to the west got. If the storm had been slightly further to the east, would we all have been buried?

Last year it was much colder by now, although we had a mild start to fall, we turned drastically colder on the 15th and thats when I turned my heat on.

Yes the magic number was always the 15th when I lived in Brooklyn!

Wow what are they feeding these things to make them so big?

I dont know why some care if it hits 70 when there's no chance it's going to snow lol. I remember we came close to 70 during the big deluge a week or two after the Jan 1996 blizzard. Severe tstorm warnings too.

70 isn't as rare as some make it out to be, we've hit 70 a few times in January too.

I thought their guidelines stated that heat needed to be 62 regardless of what the high temp was, as long as it was October.

Skip 1995, I was hoping you'd say either 1994 or 1996

Jan 2016 was another one.....

Well have a look at the Euro LR maps, Ray, they look like they're forecasting January to be below normal snowfall. Maybe normal snowfall for some areas. February is when they're depicting well above snowfall. https://bennollweather.com/ecmwf https://www.bennollweather.com/ukmet UKMet has a better snowfall distribution.

Looks like frequent rainy periods though, so not a "clean" warm up. Yesterday and today are a lot better.

This is pretty warm for late October- I still haven't turned my heat on. Perfect weather actually.

Thanks, just what I was looking for to account for the rapid increase in 3"+ rainfall events, all the flooding in the middle of the country that seems to be happening yearly, as well as the wildfire epidemic in the West and the decrease of extreme Arctic outbreaks directly into the East.

It's generally in the same places and the city ignores the complaints coming from people who live in those areas.

I remember reading about why this pattern is so stable. It has to do with oceans warming faster therefore the land areas near the oceans are more likely to be warmer than normal. High mountainous areas like the Rockies are more likely to be colder than normal.