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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    this weekend may have the last arctic shot for a long time, and looks like the Euro will be right with its idea of a single Scandanavian high, rather than the dual blocking pattern of the GFS.
  2. LibertyBell
    well cold and dry / mild and wet would be a sign of an AMO switch.....
  3. LibertyBell
    Has the AMO switched back yet or is it forecast to do so within the next few years? I know we had a lot of cold dry winters back in the 80s, so it's probably not going to be as exciting as the last couple of decades have been.
  4. LibertyBell
    Yep, I like to wait for 5 days out because the models seem to be on a huge roller coaster 7-10 days away. And some years are easier to forecast than others, this looks like one of the more difficult ones.
  5. LibertyBell
    I think he means long range forecasting weeks and months in advance. It's better to wait until it's within 5 days, that's plenty of time for the sanitation dept too.
  6. LibertyBell
    Yep, thats why I said Jan 20 to Mar 20 that's been the pattern this decade
  7. LibertyBell
    maybe the lack of arctic highs entering further east has to do with the arctic warming and the glacier melt over Greenland.
  8. LibertyBell
    hence why a cold November is usually a bad sign for winters here lol. the exceptions were all la ninas? nope 2002 was a major el nino exception (but it also had a hot summer so that may partially explain it- a late onset el nino.) 2013 and 2014 weren't la ninas either were there?
  9. LibertyBell
    I'm not even sure why people bother with long term forecasting. Long term forecasting will be accurate when humans learn to control the weather!
  10. LibertyBell
    wow 1917-18 only had one major snowstorm even though 60" of snow fell that year and it was below zero multiple times?
  11. LibertyBell
    Between Jan 20 and Mar 20 BOOK IT!
  12. LibertyBell
    thats a big change! what has neutralized the effect of UHI? The fact that we've had fresh arctic masses coming in every few days rather than a lingering stale arctic air mass?
  13. LibertyBell
    Wow that is pretty good! With the arctic shot coming in for the start of the weekend, we'll break that record (for the first 16-17 days anyway.)
  14. LibertyBell
    Interesting that neither last November or the one before are on this list- both were very cold! Also interesting not to see the very snowy and cold November 1989 and November 2012 not on this list.
  15. LibertyBell
    I am actually more enthusiastic because we didn't see any accumulating snow in November
  16. LibertyBell
    We must divorce our emotions from what the planet does to regulate itself. The system as a whole is more significant than any of its parts. With that said, I want to go after these greedy bastards who screw with the environment too! I want THEM to sink first.
  17. LibertyBell
    In the original unedited post that wasn't mentioned. Either way, this "cold streak" was an island of cold in a sea of warmth. Unprecedented warmth was surrounding it on all sides.
  18. LibertyBell
    Dec -NAO (specifically late Dec -NAO) has a nice correlation to winter time predominant -NAO. Dont know about late November, I thought most of the forecasts were for a warming trend for the end of the month and the beginning of December?
  19. LibertyBell
    Looks like another offshore low later in the week, by then temps will be in the mid 50s.
  20. LibertyBell
    like last year lol
  21. LibertyBell
    huh ABC was saying the record is from 1873 and is 22 degrees too? what weather station are they using for their info?
  22. LibertyBell
    Based on what we've been seeing the last few years and how this season has started, it's reasonable to assume this will be a backloaded winter, with the majority of the snow in February and March. Maybe something minor in December to whet the appetite?
  23. LibertyBell
    whats keeping those winds from hitting us though?
  24. LibertyBell
    the move that happened because people were stealing their stuff? why not just put a fence around the castle....
  25. LibertyBell
    Looks like there's a coastal possible around Hatteras in that same 11/20 time frame.
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