LibertyBell

Remember March (1) 2009, Chris? Thats the closest we came to an area-wide double digit snowfall in March since 1993.

I think we have this discussion every year lol. In March, you need those extreme snowfall rates to get heavy accumulations. It's harder for us or the city to get it because storms generally focus their heaviest rates either west (inland) or further east (eastern Long Island.) To get those kind of rates here in March is like a thread the needle kind of scenario. I'm not sure a January 1996 or February 1983 or January 2016 kind of storm is possible in March anymore with our heavy urbanization, where we all do extremely well (apologies to the northern crew who got cut off.)

Yes but here on the western south shore (and also in urbanized areas like the city) it's hard to get accumulation in March. The truly big storms happen in December over March around here (although it hasn't happened since 2010, but where I live we haven't had a double digit March storm since 1993, and that changed to rain.) In either case, the shorter days and lower sun angle give December a much more wintry feel, when those storms do happen. This seems to be a cyclic pattern in terms of when December/March trade places for snowfall; in the 1950s we had this pattern too. Then we switched in the 1960s. It seems to go decade by decade, as it was snowier in December in the 40s, snowier in March in the 50s (March was the snowiest month overall that decade), and back to being snowier again in December during the 60s.

Yes but I remember the latter part of December in 2005 was much milder and that led to a mild January also. Here on Long Island we didn't get anywhere near 6 inches that December. It was a one big storm winter, which we were on the eastern edge of, in February. The early April snow burst was by far the most exciting event that season, it got NYC to 40" and dumped 2" here in the middle of the day.

December is more wintry than March; snowfall is about the same, but the days are much shorter and snow pack retention is much better. Full averages (over the entirety of the climate record) are between 5-6 inches each for both months.

Dec 2005 (one of the analogs) comes to mind.

Haven't seen one of those "bowling ball" systems in awhile! A little early to get a snowstorm from one of those around here though.

This could be one of the more traveler-unfriendly Thanksgiving weekends then. I was planning on coming back on Monday anyway to avoid the holiday traffic.

Looks like a cold four day weekend then but not as cold as when we had our Arctic outbreaks earlier in the month? I saw there's a second storm coming behind the pre-Thanksgiving one (the one that is going to hit California hard), does that look to be mainly rain too (and is that on Sunday)?

How cold are we looking at for Thursday and for the entire weekend? 40s?

Do milder Decembers lead to milder/less snowy winters overall? That would be a reason my cold November less snowy winter correlation exists.

I think nature is still trying to balance out what's going on in the Arctic by making changes elsewhere in response.

well it could also be considered as an effect of climate change, as we are having more extremes now and nature is still trying to balance things out (downstream changes from a warmer Arctic.)

I wonder if that's because the Arctic has become warmer that the balance of heat has shifted to make it colder overall in the mountainous west and in the Great Plains. Also, as you can see, it's become warmer along the east coast, so this may be nature's way of trying to balance things out because of a warmer Arctic. Could also have a Pac influence here as the ice melts in the Arctic, driving downstream changes.

Yes indeed! It's in Penn Forest Township by Bear Creek Lake. 2,000 ft asl

I suspect a lot of our snow droughts down here were great winters up there. I dont know how to find this info but I was wondering where you have to be to get a minimum of 40 inches of snow every year. *actually that's too high, because I dont want to have excessive snow either. I'd settle for a minimum of 20 inches of snow a year (no complete dud winters like 2001-02, 2011-12, etc., or even 2006-07, 2007-08).

Christmas 1980 was the coldest Christmas ever and had snow with below zero temps! Winter 1981-82 had the big snow in January and the unprecedented April blizzard. Then we had the Feb 1983 HECS the following winter, and that was all she wrote for the 80s (more or less.) It was still very cold in the following winters (1983-84 and 1984-85 in particular, that Jan 1985 outbreak was the coldest I can remember) but no more big snowstorms.

Well if the Euro is right, it looks like the rain would end before Thanksgiving morning? Also, you're right, looks like our arctic November is over! No more of those frigid shots at least for the next few weeks.

From what I see in the maps, it looks like the Euro moves the storm in and out more quickly, where it would rain on Wednesday and clear out in time for Thanksgiving. The GFS has a slower storm that drops most of the rain on Thanksgiving.

I'm planning a trip to Northeastern PA- does early Thanksgiving morning sound like a bad day to travel? I wanted to go when the roads weren't busy but the weather also needs to be good. What about really early Wednesday morning (like around 9 AM.)

It was a weird night, I think the fog must've been really shallow because you could see a few stars right through the fog. The meteor was really bright, I'd estimate it was around the same brightness as Jupiter. Really easy to see, even through the fog. The brightest ones I've seen (I'd call them fireballs) were as bright as Venus. I saw the Leonid storm in November 2001, which was really early in the morning, around 5 AM. I could see 100s of them PER MINUTE quite easily even with light pollution, it was like a silent fireworks display. I could see them easily even when I wasn't looking at them or for them. I dont think we'll get a storm like that again for 30 years or so.

History has taught us not to bank on these occurring to save a snowfall season.

I've seen Perseid meteors through the fog in the Poconos, which was pretty amazing!

Yes, I think this is the big change you mentioned in the Pacific since 2010-11.

Is this why May has become the month in which -NAO most frequently occur?