LibertyBell

and some storms between 05-06 and 07-08. I think the only years that were significantly better pre 2000 were 93-94 and 95-96 and even 93-94 had a lot of mixing.

Models had it snowing until Tuesday morning, the question is what time will it changeover back to snow tomorrow. Some of them have it happening as late as 5 PM.

More snow on the back end quicker? I fail to understand your logic there. Do you mean there's more cold air around and it's drying up the front edge of the storm and the deeper cold air means more snow on the back end? But as Long Beach Surfer said, the mid levels are warmer than they were forecast to be.

How is it even possible for South Jersey to get 20" in a marginal scenario where the rain/snow line is an issue? You usually see that in a suppressed storm like February 1989- not this!

Looks like the Florida Keys will be permanently underwater within a few decades- ditto parts of the Louisiana coast. https://t.co/HWaooJD5ek?amp=1

whats the temp there? it might be a function of low rates, as the precip gets heavier it will snow and temps will drop.

its CCB gets us also, CCB is the most reliable way to get snow around here.

It reminds me of the old Intense Snowfall Warning which was something like 10 inches in 24 hours or 20 inches in 48 hours.

I wonder if the NAM actually does better than the other models on storms like these because of the dynamic nature of the storm and small scale features involved.

it is if you like hot dogs!

I've been saying that I like the NAM over other models for storms like these.

it's usually the CCB that makes or breaks forecasts because that's how we get the majority of our snow.

whats the temp there

All the seagulls in the air seem to indicate that a big storm is on the way.

Yes but after spending years following this stuff I've noticed patterns, where certain areas simply never get the banding (my area is one of those.)

Thats why relying on convective banding is a bad idea. We got half the snow NYC got in Feb 2006.

So this means that JFK was significantly milder in November 1995 (more than a degree milder) but significantly colder in November 1996? On the last page, November 1996 avg temp for JFK is listed as a bit more than 42 degrees, while November 1995 isn't even on the list (which means it had a mean temp of more than 44.6)? 1996-97 was also a book end winter, but it was better further north than 1959-60 was, I remember reading that Worcester had two big storms- Dec 1996 and Apr 1997, and virtually nothing in between.

Thanks, can you also look up November 1996? For some reason JFK has November 1996 listed as one of their coldest Novembers, but not November 1995. That has me very confused!

December 2003 was one of my long duration favorites, two days of snow and cold!

Thanks Ed, thats why I was hoping to see the NAM's output. It does better in these scenarios.

mini Feb 2006 lmao

Wow, I'm surprised that November 1989 and November 1995 aren't on this list. November 1995 was on the Central Park cold November list according to Uncle. Besides 2002-03, none of the other winters following your list were very snowy.

ah so not as cold as November 1989, but nearly as cold as November 1995? Also, 1959-60 was one of your analogs! Uncle I got confused by this part: .all analogs listed had above average snowfall except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season...

I edited the post to ask why Shirley would get more snow than Hempstead, even though Hempstead is to the NW of Shirley, and NW is where the higher totals should be. And looking at the Euro totals, does this mean it's predicting 4" of snow on the front end and only 1" on the back end? I thought the back end would be much better since it would last for like 12-18 hours.....

I hate it when that warm tongue comes up through the middle of Long Island, with higher totals both to the west and east lol. Why do you suppose a place like Shirley gets more snow than Hempstead? You'd think that it should be more straightforward in this kind of pattern, the further west you go, the more snow you get. So according to this, the 5" that JFK is progged to get on the 6z Euro, like 4" of that will be on the front end? How is that possible when it's supposed to snow all afternoon Monday and all night Monday night and into Tuesday morning, Chris?