LibertyBell

Chris, what are the reasons we didn't have this at any point during the winter but somehow as soon as spring comes along we got this NAO signal? It seems to be a pattern that happens a lot - is a neg NAO more common in the spring than in the winter for some reason? I love this weather- nice and dry and sunny. I just dont like it when it rains every other day and you dont see the sun for a month. My ideal weather would be sunny 6 days out of every week and rain on the seventh day. Maybe one day when humankind can finally control the weather we'll be able to do that ourselves. And get rid of all the horrible flooding that happens when systems stall and the same pattern keeps repeating like they are having in the middle of the country.

the new moon will help lower your temps even more ;-)

Yes I have one of those now, but I still worry about damage and turn everything off regardless. I have large voltage fluctuations here (I see that on the UPS's LCD panel) and sometimes have brownouts that last a fraction of a second which happen when the wind gusts or a storm comes in. The UPS batteries are hard for me to replace so every few years I get a new one. I'm on my fourth one now lol.

thats why I turn all electronics off during storms. I've lost thousands of dollars of equipment because of thunderstorms.

most of Long Island gets their storms in September and October. the spring season is overrated for us on the south shore, when the ocean warms up and the land starts to cool down is when we have our best outbreaks.

I'm a bit suspicious of all the hot summer forecasts. Though warm and somewhat dry would be a nice change. We all know the super hot summer is coming in 2021- thats the 11 year pattern lol.

frost warnings in the Poconos!

we had two severe thunderstorm warnings! The storm at 6:30 was pretty good too, I was only disappointed that we didn't get to see a rainbow afterwards

I see quite a few going for a warm and dry summer but enhanced risk of tropical activity later on along the east coast

Thanks, it makes me wonder how many storms and canes we actually had in 1933, the record which was overtaken by 2005. It's possible that 1933 had more if the records from back then are that incomplete! About the AMO, I wonder if that cycle is of variable length, it seems like the earlier periods of the warm phase were somewhat dissimilar from each other (1950s-1960s), (1990s-2000s), etc.

Very interesting, so there hasn't been some sort of cyclic or pattern change that would cause this! How far back would you say that the HURDAT2 list is reasonably accurate, both on quantity and intensity?

Right. But from a climatological and historical perspective, the SSTs of the northern gulf shelf by Sept-Oct have generally cooled below what is required to support a rapidly deepening Cat 5. Sure, the central, southern GOM and Bay of Campeche would continue supporting Cat 5 intensity through October, but those storms tend to weaken drastically if steered into the N. GOM. Major hurricane Opal being a prime example. October of 2018 hopefully remains anomalous in its mutliple contributing factors that lead to Michael, as generally multiple cold fronts have swept through the northern gulf by mid-to-late September and subsequent dry continental air plus radiational cooling has brought down mean heat content by 3-4°C. Again, it's one thing to consider a rare Category 5 threat in July, August, perhaps still even September, but October? Michael is hopefully the rarest of generational occurrences. Yes, we dont need to have another one of these supercanes. Going by purely statistical records, we seem to get a Cat 5 landfalling cane in the US about every 30 years or so and this is the first one that's happened in October. August into early September is when the others have occurred. The question I have besides this is a general one about the Atlantic basin- has there been some change in the general circulation pattern to increase the number of high intensity hurricanes in October across the totality of the Atlantic basin? I know we have a secondary peak in average activity in October, but it seems like over the past number of years we've seen more major hurricanes in October.

Reading back through this thread, I was dead wrong in one point while trying to discredit preconceptons or misconceptions about landfalling Cat 5s along the N. GOM coast, including rapid intensification over its shallow shelf. I never once imagined that scenario being possible in the month of October. Then having that play out approximately one year later? Crazy! Some of the strongest 'canes have occurred in October though- it seems to be the new peak month for the strongest 'canes.

I visited my other home (in the Poconos) over the weekend and there's 10"-15" on the ground over there and it's very heavy and hard to move. I didn't even attempt to shovel my driveway there and just parked on the road and went inside to make sure everything was fine (I only stay in that house during the warm season.)

Based on the consistent undermeasurements since November (Logan is doing the same thing JFK has been doing for years), I feel the "actual" snowfall should be somewhere around 35-40" for the season, so Raindance's prediction would actually be pretty close.

snowing at JFK so the Rockaways should be all snow too.

Going to give credit to Chris (Blue Wave) for pointing this out, but have you noticed the sharp SOI drops we have had the last three Februarys?

The outrageous number of 10+ events in back to back winters, 2009-10 and 2010-11 (even including the near miss) will probably not be repeated for a long time. But I also said that after 1995-96, yet the back to back combo of 2009-10 and 2010-11 was probably a more rare occurrence.

It's amazing how the first several decades that NYC measured snowfall all had averages of higher than 30"

Thanks for this! Can I get the data for the 80s and early 90s from that link too? I averaged it out to 66 over 15 decades so just over 4 per decade so a bit less than 50% odds of having a 10" storm per winter. It was only 46 through 12 decades though if you just go up through the 80s so just less than 4 per decade at that point, so less than 40% odds per winter. And just 13 over 4 decades or about 30% per winter if you go from the 50s through the 80s. No decade in recorded history had more than 6 or a 60% chance in any given year in that decade, until the 2000s that is lol. The 2010s have a decent chance to be the first decade in recorded history to have double digit 10"+ events and average one per year for the whole decade, and already have 9 if you include the December 2009 event as part of this decade. *actually if you consider 2001 as the start of the 2000 decade, that decade had 9 of them (90% odds in that decade to have one per year- and 100%-110% odds if you include Dec 2000 or Jan 2011 which makes for 10 or 11 in that decade!) while the 2010s would only have 4 so far if the latter is included in the previous decade. This is because of the amazing 3 we had in the 2009-10 winter (and would have easily had 4 if we didn't just miss out on the early Feb 2010 event) and 2 in the 2010-11 winter (which was almost 3, since NYC had just over 9 inches in the storm in between)! So 5-7 of them over two years! Based on that no decade had more than 5 or 50% odds per year in that decade aside from the very first one and the last three!

The other thing is how some decades really sucked- the 1880s were horrible outside of the Blizzard of 1888- much like how the 1980s were horrible outside of Feb 1983 and April 1982. April 1982 doesn't even make the list because it was just under 10"! So both the 1880s and 1980s only had one storm of 10" or more for the entire decade and both were historic ones.

Two things I was hoping you could help me with...... Do you have a list anywhere of all 10+" snowfalls at NYC and JFK? I wanted to average out the numbers of such events per decade. Also, do you have a list of all accumulated snowfalls 0.1" and higher at NYC and JFK between the winters of 1979-80 and 1995-96? I wanted to match up data with my memories.

but we're also going to get multiple days in the mid 50s next week, I hear people want an early spring and to put this to bed already. I want a 2012-13 style comeback but I can understand why people dont want to go bankrupt over heating bills.

Ed did you get around 60 inches in 30 days? What was your maximum snow cover? I think we had a 3 month constant snow cover that winter!

It reached into the low 60s in the Poconos and down here on Long Island I hear pingers which can only be small hail lol.