Chris do you think the -nao is a response to that extreme ridge in the SE or vice versa? Also would a -nao for July and August actually mean a warm and dry summer? I saw a chart a few years ago that showed nao correlations to summer weather, and it had pos nao being linked to warm summers up to about south Jersey, from central Jersey through southern new england it showed a weak correlation between neg nao and warm summers and north of there the correlation was strong.