LibertyBell

Thanks! So a hard free is <28 but no time frame attached to it?

If we could get a system like this in the winter.....

lol yeah, I think it's in the NWS definitions somewhere too- and it has to last for 4 hours I think?

Depends on how long those temps last. I saw a low of 28 a few weeks ago in the Poconos and yet there was no damage. I think for a widespread killing frost you need temps of 27 or lower for 4 straight hours.

Thanks Don, I suspect that the last 80 is the threshold for when true fall weather begins, because at all of our local airports we've seen 70 degrees even during the middle of winter (Jan/Feb)? Likewise the first 80 of the year is the threshold for true spring.

We talked about why it might happen last year. I remember Chris said when you have cold/snowy weather prior to winter, the atmosphere needs some time to recover to get back to that pattern and that might result in a milder December, and then you're already getting the winter started off on the wrong foot, and etc. A milder start means less snow albedo feedback from up north and milder and less snow, which is a more stable pattern than a colder/snowy pattern is. Thats why winters like 2014-15 are extremely rare.

I think we have a few decades left. Maybe by the time it stops snowing around here, we'll be too old to actually see snow (or our eyes will be so bad that we'll see snow everywhere lol.)

Also, the Januarys back in the 80s were much colder. DC/Balt also had much more snow back then and far more suppressed storms than we have now.

it was actually the opposite of 2002-03 in terms of pac/atl, but results were similar. Main difference being the 2002-03 winter lasted a lot longer.

Yes, the predictions didn't change until the Boxing Day storm happened; our fortunes for the entire winter changed with the GFS! We had some near misses before that.

Chris, what was the latest 80 degree day at JFK?

I remember the marathon the day before was so hot people were passing out. And not just the runners! 80 at NYC on the 15th, the day before was 72.

Wow that's quite a gaping hole right in the middle! 30-36" would be eminently doable even with just one huge storm and a handful of minor 1-3" events. A backloaded winter could do that. That would probably be the ceiling for what's likely and I'd put that in second place. Perhaps more likely would be a snowfall total in the teens with no major (12+) totals and perhaps one 6" storm- that would be most likely. Getting something along the lines of 2001-02 or 2011-12 would be less likely, but still a distinct possibility. I'd put that in third place.

oh, I mentioned that in my prior post. It was worse for us on Long Island, we only got around 2 feet of the snow because the big totals with the Feb storm happened to our west. My instincts tell me we're likely in for somewhere between the 20"-30" range you mentioned as the most likely possibility, though there's a chance for breaking 30" if we get that one big storm.

2010-11 is such a massive outlier and I suspect that's because it came after a big el nino (2009-10). What was the other case with 40" or more, Don?

I see either that happening or a winter that's mostly like that but with one big snowfall somewhere in the middle (likely February.) But that usually happens in a strong el nino, which we dont have (an exception is 05-06). There's also a possibility of the elusive backloaded winter that gets us to around average snowfall to maybe slightly above average (around 30").

You probably saw Orion, it was high up in the Southern sky around 3 am.

I saw the same thing after the cold shot in late Sept over in the Poconos. The leaves became vivid after the temps went down into the 30s there!

Full moon is tonight! On the 13th! But not Friday the 13th lol.

Don, when both October and November are above normal temps, the following winters are mild and snowless most of the time, right?

Most of the normal to above normal snowfall winters were one trick ponies, like 1982-83 and 2015-16 (although that latter one trick was my only 30" snowstorm!)

NYC hit 80 on Nov 15, 1993

Only great winters in that list followed 1933 and 2002

Not in 1993?

Chances for some late October tropical activity on the east coast?