LibertyBell

I remember this pattern started in the early 00s where storms almost always went further NW than expected. Actually going back to 1995-96 when you think about it.

That's conducive for a meteorological bomb!

and that warm blob over the Pacific and super amplified patterns that stick in place

Very well stated John, short term profits are selected over long term sustainability.

Thanks, I remember that night being crystal clear too and frigid but maybe the wind was too high to get below 0. Do you remember the other one (also February), the 30 hour snowstorm due to a low stalling just offshore with a narrow band of 4-8? (Would have been more if the snow during the day wasn't so wet.) I'm thinking early 90s on that one too.

Pre 93 I remember a storm that stalled just offshore in February. It was supposed to just be a frontal passage and it stalled for 30 hours and just kept snowing. During the day it was mostly wet snow and at night it really started to stick, and there was 4-8 inches in a narrow band from EWR across the city and on Long Island. Do you happen to know what year that was? Sometime in the early 90s? Then there was another one in the early 90s that also occurred in February, an arctic front slipped down from the north and a low formed on it and dropped 4-7 inches across the area, an all day snowfall with a brilliant red frigid sunset (what a treat!) It was 4 inches here with 7 inches in Plainview, Long Island. Was that the following year?

They mention a catalyst and also that it's a few years away from commercial development. https://twitter.com/i/events/1191456175449088006 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-04/moth-poulsen-s-energy-trapping-molecule-could-solve-solar-storage The innovations include an energy-trapping molecule, a storage system that promises to outperform traditional batteries and an energy-storing laminate coating that can be applied to windows and textiles. Swedish scientists develop energy storing molecule that can be applied as a transparent coating to windows, houses, cars, clothes and release heat when exposed to a catalyst. Still a few years from commercialisation - but pretty amazing potential if it comes good. Scientists say they’ve figured out how to store solar power for decades, a major energy breakthrough Scientists in Sweden have figured out how to harness solar power, store it and release it on demand in the form of heat decades after it's been captured Scientists at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg have figured out how to harness the energy and keep it in reserve so it can be released on demand in the form of heat—even decades after it was captured. The innovations include an energy-trapping molecule, a storage system that promises to outperform traditional batteries, at least when it comes to heating, and an energy-storing laminate coating that can be applied to windows and textiles. The breakthroughs, from a team led by researcher Kasper Moth-Poulsen, have garnered praise within the scientific community. Now comes the real test: whether Moth-Poulsen can get investors to back his technology and take it to market. The system starts with a liquid molecule made up of carbon, hydrogen, and nitrogen. When hit by sunlight, the molecule draws in the sun’s energy and holds it until a catalyst triggers its release as heat. The researchers spent almost a decade and $2.5 million to create a specialized storage unit, which Moth-Poulsen, a 40-year-old professor in the department of chemistry and chemical engineering, says has the stability to outlast the 5-to 10-year life span of typical lithium-ion batteries on the market today. The most advanced potential commercial use the team developed is a transparent coating that can be applied to home windows, a moving vehicle, or even clothing. The coating collects solar energy and releases heat, reducing electricity required for heating spaces and curbing carbon emissions. Moth-Poulsen is coating an entire building on campus to showcase the technology. The ideal use in the early going, he says, is in relatively small spaces. “This could be heating of electrical vehicles or in houses.” A big unknown is whether the system can produce electricity. While Moth-Poulsen believes the potential exists, his team is focused for now on heating. His research group is one of about 15 trying to tackle climate change with molecular thermal solar systems. Part of what motivates them is the Paris Agreement, which commits signatories to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5C (2.7F). Moth-Poulsen plans to spin off a company that would advance the technology and says he’s in talks with venture capital investors. The storage unit could be commercially available in as little as six years and the coating in three, pending the $5 million of additional funding he estimates will be needed to bring the coating to market. In May he won the Arnbergska Prize from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences for his solar energy projects. The professor doesn’t have precise cost estimates for the technology but is aware that it will need to be affordable. One cost advantage is that the system doesn’t need any rare or expensive elements. Jeffrey Grossman, a professor in the department of materials science and engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who’s also developing energy storage molecules, calls the Chalmers University team’s work “crucial if we want to see this energy conversion storage approach commercialized.”

January 1988? Didn't that have 7" at LGA? I think I remember that storm, it snowed overnight into morning and we had school delays (but no cancellations of course.) Do you by any chance remember a December snowstorm that dropped 8.6" at NYC? I dont remember what year it was but it had to have been after 83 (all I remember about 83-84 is back to back 4-5 inch snowfalls that both fell overnight and lots of cold.) I think it was December 1984? Or maybe December 1985?

Some of those winters had crazy gradients, both 86-87 and 87-88 had much more snow to our SW, including Monmouth County. I think 88-89 was like that, I remember a virga snowstorm that February. And 89-90 of course, had that in December. Lots of cold and dry winters or cold and dry flipping to warm and wet.

Reposting this here: https://twitter.com/i/events/1191456175449088006 https://t.co/L02Ps9o1UT?amp=1 The innovations include an energy-trapping molecule, a storage system that promises to outperform traditional batteries and an energy-storing laminate coating that can be applied to windows and textiles. https://t.co/krDcakrWmi?amp=1 Swedish scientists develop energy storing molecule that can be applied as a transparent coating to windows, houses, cars, clothes and release heat when exposed to a catalyst. Still a few years from commercialisation - but pretty amazing potential if it comes good. https://t.co/z35BQWGHGI?amp=1 Scientists say they’ve figured out how to store solar power for decades, a major energy breakthrough https://t.co/lNqEF9YcJJ?amp=1 Scientists in Sweden have figured out how to harness solar power, store it and release it on demand in the form of heat decades after it's been captured https://t.co/kqsBusDxWM?amp=1

Maybe just for November Pattern takes time to reload so it might reinforce a backloaded winter after that. Or maybe we should call it a bookend season?

That could also be why we're seeing the more common occurrence of very early season snowfalls starting in October 2011.

We had a crazy streak of winters back then with no 10 inch snowstorms and no 30 inch snowfall winters. I think it lasted from 1983-84 thru 1991-92. Thats why it was so challenging to try and predict when the next big snowfall winter would be. I remember 1991 had such an abnormally cold summer thanks to Pinatubo and even the fall started off really cold, our long range predictors thought for sure it would be that winter, but just like 1989-90 which also had a very cold fall, the pattern changed on a dime. Then we finally had the one big snowstorm in 1992-93, even though it did change to rain, and then the real whole sale pattern change in 1993-94. Funny thing about that was that almost every single storm was predicted to either be rain or change to rain and all it ever did was go from snow to a mix. The large quantity of storms was how we got to 50+ and we ran out of salt lol. 1995-96 was the GOAT but in some ways 1993-94 was worse in terms of how hard it was to predict and handle all those storms. plus two subzero Arctic outbreaks and a major ice storm thrown in there!

Wow, thats amazing, Chris..... any thoughts as to why the sudden change? Maybe it has to do with changes in the Pacific we've been seeing in this decade and the "warm blob" of water just offshore from the West Coast?

Yep, I forgot what day it was, but I think it was before Thanksgiving- something like the 19th? Our most notable cold early November snowstorms were the one we had a week after Sandy and the one we had last year. Vets Day 1987 would have been big here too but somehow missed us and hit both DC and Boston.

An exception to this happened in November 1995 when it was in the 60s the day prior and we got a surprise 3-6 inches overnight into the next morning as a low formed along a front that stalled.

Does the event Ant was talking about on the following Tuesday seem more favorable? Will the air by then actually be colder than what we'll have on Friday?

I'm wondering how this ties in to the 6/6 couplet I saw in the data from 1951-1990 where our big snow winters had cold Octobers followed by mild Novembers. Perhaps the pattern was reloading in November and got favorable just in time to give us a big winter?

I wonder how much the solar min is affecting our temps this year. Those back to back 99s we had back in July, how much higher would the temps have been with a solar max? Does anyone know?

Back when I first started using analogs without even knowing what an analog was back in the late 80s and early 90s, I used the The Weather Almanac to look up previous years. The 1985 and 1990 editions of that book are what I had access too and there was no internet around back then. That book had monthly average temps for every year from 1951 through 1990 and I noticed that winters in which we had a large amount of snow (40" or more), we had an interesting couplet in fall. In all of those seasons October was below normal temps and November was above normal temps. It was a 6/6 using the following winters: 1955-56, 1957-58, 1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, 1977-78. We were in a long snow drought back then so I thought if we got that couplet again and it was followed by a very hot summer (which also seemed to be part of the equation), we had a chance at a great winter. That's why I was so excited when 1993 followed just such a pattern! And again in 1995, and this time with the aid of the tropics, which seemed so similar to 1933-34 with the predominantly offshore tracks. Of course, since 2000, something has changed and our winters are vastly different now, so the couplet correlation no longer seems to apply.

2014-15 with a better January 2015 storm would be ideal.

Wow, big difference between NYC, LGA and JFK. I wonder what the largest difference in temps between those sites have been when JFK had a freeze and the other two didn't.

Is there a chance that NYC will get the lowest first freeze temp? Not only that but the lowest temp after the previous seasonal low temp was 40 or higher?

If we get some kind of major or even moderate snowstorm this month lets see if your theory holds up that early season snow may be bad for us because when the pattern flips to mild it doesn't have enough time to flip back to cold and snowy again until half the season is over.

Wow, and it's never gotten to 25 or below before November has it? I see we also have chances for snow, we're going to be on the northern fringe of a storm- a good place to be right now lol.